Topic: why is it so hard to do a Brexit

[Super Duper Branko Strupar]

I don't agree with the conflation of big business corporate interests, the EU and the Eurozone. I don't know if you guys really believe they are the same thing or if you're using misdirection on purpose.

They have a growing influence that's for sure, but that's not symptomatic of the EU. The EU isn't the cause.

[Parky]

I don't agree with the conflation of big business corporate interests, the EU and the Eurozone. I don't know if you guys really believe they are the same thing or if you're using misdirection on purpose.

They have a growing influence that's for sure, but that's not symptomatic of the EU. The EU isn't the cause.

http://corporateeurope.org/news/roundtable-goes-full-conquest

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Who runs the UK Parliament for that matter? I'm not disagreeing that the power of business is a harmful thing for democracy. I just don't think business interests equal the European Union as clearly as that.

David Cameron would be privatising the s*** out of the NHS either way, he doesn't need to be in the EU to do it.

[Parky]

But we have the chance to do something about him.

[Super Duper Branko Strupar]

Europe will turn anti capitalism before we will. Christ, America will.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I know nobody votes for their MEP, but they can in theory!

[mrmojorisin75]

Is there a strong argument or theory about how things would go if we pulled out?  Seeing as we manufacture and export very little comparatively and the EU would presumably respond to our exit with punitive tariffs all over the place, and probably strict or prohibitive work permit requirements (as would we i'm sure), I'm genuinely interested what the overall impact would likely be to the economy.  A lot depends on the EU response in some ways I guess but their stance on Greece debt wasn't encouraging.

That's taking aside the issue of what would happen to our already poisonous nationalism

[Toondave]

Is there a strong argument or theory about how things would go if we pulled out?  Seeing as we manufacture and export very little comparatively and the EU would presumably respond to our exit with punitive tariffs all over the place, and probably strict or prohibitive work permit requirements (as would we i'm sure), I'm genuinely interested what the overall impact would likely be to the economy.  A lot depends on the EU response in some ways I guess but their stance on Greece debt wasn't encouraging.

That's taking aside the issue of what would happen to our already poisonous nationalism

We have run a trade deficit with the EU/EEC since 1973. Why would they hit us with tariffs?

[mrmojorisin75]

Is there a strong argument or theory about how things would go if we pulled out?  Seeing as we manufacture and export very little comparatively and the EU would presumably respond to our exit with punitive tariffs all over the place, and probably strict or prohibitive work permit requirements (as would we i'm sure), I'm genuinely interested what the overall impact would likely be to the economy.  A lot depends on the EU response in some ways I guess but their stance on Greece debt wasn't encouraging.

That's taking aside the issue of what would happen to our already poisonous nationalism

We have run a trade deficit with the EU/EEC since 1973. Why would they hit us with tariffs?

Well, I'm presuming the UK walking out on the EU with all associated 'free trade' benefits will be met with something other than a handshake and a smile. The EU was intended to do away with cross border import tariffs and so on, so if we're not in it why wouldn't they go back to the way it was?

This is why I'm asking the question, are people just assuming we can walk away getting everything we want and nothing will change for the worse?

[Toondave]

Is there a strong argument or theory about how things would go if we pulled out?  Seeing as we manufacture and export very little comparatively and the EU would presumably respond to our exit with punitive tariffs all over the place, and probably strict or prohibitive work permit requirements (as would we i'm sure), I'm genuinely interested what the overall impact would likely be to the economy.  A lot depends on the EU response in some ways I guess but their stance on Greece debt wasn't encouraging.

That's taking aside the issue of what would happen to our already poisonous nationalism

We have run a trade deficit with the EU/EEC since 1973. Why would they hit us with tariffs?

Well, I'm presuming the UK walking out on the EU with all associated 'free trade' benefits will be met with something other than a handshake and a smile. The EU was intended to do away with cross border import tariffs and so on, so if we're not in it why wouldn't they go back to the way it was?

This is why I'm asking the question, are people just assuming we can walk away getting everything we want and nothing will change for the worse?

A refusal to sign a FTA with the UK would be the EU cutting its nose off to spite its face. They need us more than we need them, remember this. If they are capable of pursuing such a policy of vengeance then why would we want to be part of such a union?

I would't put it past them to do that but why should we be held by the balls by the EU? They'd back down eventually, when they realise how much money they are losing, and in the meantime we'd have signed a FTA with China, India et al and be capitalising on the growth of economies outside of the EU customs union.

and on that customs union... When we joined the customs union in 1973 it accounted for a whopping 37% of world GDP, by the 2025 it will be just 22% thanks to emerging markets elsewhere in the world, emerging markets that we don't have the ability to sign FTA with. In the EU we can't sign our own agreements with non-EU countries and must instead wait for Brussels to get round to it. This affects us disproportionately hard as, in 2012 (the only figures I've got right here), 57% of our exports were headed for non-EU economies, while for reference only 22% of Belgian trade was efferent. Pretty much every country that we could improve trade relations with are growing at much higher rates than the EU is currently; eg BRIC and other emerging markets like Indonesia.

[mrmojorisin75]

Is there a strong argument or theory about how things would go if we pulled out?  Seeing as we manufacture and export very little comparatively and the EU would presumably respond to our exit with punitive tariffs all over the place, and probably strict or prohibitive work permit requirements (as would we i'm sure), I'm genuinely interested what the overall impact would likely be to the economy.  A lot depends on the EU response in some ways I guess but their stance on Greece debt wasn't encouraging.

That's taking aside the issue of what would happen to our already poisonous nationalism

We have run a trade deficit with the EU/EEC since 1973. Why would they hit us with tariffs?

Well, I'm presuming the UK walking out on the EU with all associated 'free trade' benefits will be met with something other than a handshake and a smile. The EU was intended to do away with cross border import tariffs and so on, so if we're not in it why wouldn't they go back to the way it was?

This is why I'm asking the question, are people just assuming we can walk away getting everything we want and nothing will change for the worse?

A refusal to sign a FTA with the UK would be the EU cutting its nose off to spite its face. They need us more than we need them, remember this. If they are capable of pursuing such a policy of vengeance then why would we want to be part of such a union?

I would't put it past them to do that but why should we be held by the balls by the EU? They'd back down eventually, when they realise how much money they are losing, and in the meantime we'd have signed a FTA with China, India et al and be capitalising on the growth of economies outside of the EU customs union. When we joined the customs union in 1973 it accounted for a whopping 37% of world GDP, by the 2025 it will be just 22% thanks to emerging markets elsewhere in the world, emerging markets that we don't have the ability to sign FTA with. In the EU we can't sign our own agreements with non-EU countries and must instead wait for Brussels to get round to it. This affects us disproportionately hard as, in 2012 (the only figures I've got right here), 57% of our exports were headed for non-EU economies, while for reference only 22% of Belgian trade was efferent. Pretty much every country that we could improve trade relations with are growing at much higher rates than the EU is currently; eg BRIC and other emerging markets like Indonesia.

Interesting.

[Toondave]

It is true, without Britain the EU would crumble; without the EU, however, Britain would flourish.

With plans for an EU army on the horizon and with Britain being one of the major players on setting EU foreign and defence policy it means that any move towards a common armed forces would be massively hindered, if not canned, without Britain.

London is the EUs financial heart, Frankfurt isn't a scratch on the City. Tear out this and the EUs global economic power will diminish greatly and their banking system will not be able to match the UKs with the City as a foe rather than a friend.

Of course they will not let this slip and the bravado and hubris will be unbearable but after we leave the whole European project will end or undergo extreme changes that will leave it a lot less important than it is now. Get some popcorn and get comfy because it will be great.

[mrmojorisin75]

It is true, without Britain the EU would crumble; without the EU, however, Britain would flourish.

With plans for an EU army on the horizon and with Britain being one of the major players on setting EU foreign and defence policy it means that any move towards a common armed forces would be massively hindered, if not canned, without Britain.

London is the EUs financial heart, Frankfurt isn't a scratch on the City. Tear out this and the EUs global economic power will diminish greatly and their banking system will not be able to match the UKs with the City as a foe rather than a friend.

Of course they will not let this slip and the bravado and hubris will be unbearable but after we leave the whole European project will end or undergo extreme changes that will leave it a lot less important than it is now. Get some popcorn and get comfy because it will be great.

So no negatives then Dave, none?

[Toondave]

There will be negatives I'm sure. Far fewer than there will be positives of that I'm also sure.

The most glaring problems I see are all short-term/transitional. It will be a legal mess when we leave, ~2million Britons living on the continent and a similar number of EU nationals living here, there will have to be all manner of legal documentation written up regarding both their being here/there and working here/there. There will also be renegotiation of legal agreements relating to companies so businesses will have to work hard to push these through. These aren't chronic issues however and would pass once the dust settled.

Diplomatically it would certainly rustle a few feathers. I think Germany and France especially would condemn our decision, while Southern European states may look to us as an example I'm not so sure. Would probably p*ss off the Americans after we kibosh the whole TTIP farce. That may lead us to strengthen old ties with the Commonwealth and the rest of the Anglosphere though, who, as a general rule, are all exhibiting much stronger economic growth (or potential for in the case of some of the lesser Commonwealth nations) than the EU states.

There is the slight possibility of retribution in the form of tariffs and restrictions on trade but with the balance of trade the way it is I really don't see this happening. The EU would lose out on so much money it really wouldn't be worth their time unless their sole ambition was to hurt the UK.

[mrmojorisin75]

Hm.  Heavy emphasis on potential economic benefits of trading with emerging markets that's a total unknown vs. little or no understanding of what the potential negatives of leaving might be, yet you're sure the positives outweigh the negatives?

In right-wing theoretical terms it all sounds great though aye.

[Toondave]

Hm.  Heavy emphasis on potential economic benefits of trading with emerging markets that's a total unknown vs. little or no understanding of what the potential negatives of leaving might be, yet you're sure the positives outweigh the negatives?

In right-wing theoretical terms it all sounds great though aye.

Well if you don't talk about the economic benefits then you get lampooned for being anti-immigration racist/Sovereign nationalist nutjob/little englander. Of course the positives outweigh the negatives when one glaring positive is our sovereignty and the ability to make decisions that we consider to be best for the people of this country - be they right or left wing at the time, but that is irrelevant to the argument really since it's not about right wing left wing; free trade, honest democracy and open diplomacy are traits that (should) transcend the right left dichotomy.

[mrmojorisin75]

Hm.  Heavy emphasis on potential economic benefits of trading with emerging markets that's a total unknown vs. little or no understanding of what the potential negatives of leaving might be, yet you're sure the positives outweigh the negatives?

In right-wing theoretical terms it all sounds great though aye.

Well if you don't talk about the economic benefits then you get lampooned for being anti-immigration racist/Sovereign nationalist nutjob/little englander. Of course the positives outweigh the negatives when one glaring positive is our sovereignty and the ability to make decisions that we consider to be best for the people of this country - be they right or left wing at the time, but that is irrelevant to the argument really since it's not about right wing left wing; free trade, honest democracy and open diplomacy are traits that (should) transcend the right left dichotomy.

Well, on a very basic level wanting to depart from a cooperative system of states that are theoretically supposed to look after each other so we can do whatever we like is in fact right wing surely

[Inferior Acuña]

I'm verging towards out. Either way, I think the BetterIn campaign already looks terrible, and could do a world of good for UKIP in the way Better Together's campaign helped the SNP.

Not against the project in principle, but it's lack of accountability and dominance by certain nations and interests makes it essentially impossible to reform, imo, and thus is a barrier against any sort of radical reform at the nation level.

[Incognito]

Though not perfect, what sense would there be in leaving the body we do most of our trade with and also the biggest free market in the World? Leaving would almost certainly cost us a lot of jobs. What about the millions of Britons who live elsewhere in the EU? Will they be allowed to stay where they are with an Out vote? There are still many questions to be answered, but on the face of it, leaving doesn't look a wise option to me.

[Parky]

It's not a free market it has tariffs.

Currently it stops us negotiating our own trade deals with say India and China. The UK for instance has massive advantages reg trade with India but while we stay inside the EU we can't make independent trade deals with one of our historical and natural trade partners with a common business language.

I live in Germany and the feeling here is that Germany will make special exceptions for the UK as it is their biggest export market - almost bigger than the whole EU combined.

The longer we stay in the more we will be strangled by Federal Europe (currently costing 50m a day) as it is the EU charter to harmonize across the whole EU and one day have full economic and monetary Union and also a European army. All this means less independence, more cost and ultimately less say on defence matters.

The trade barrier and tariff game.

http://madb.europa.eu/madb/euTariffs.htm

[Incognito]

It's not a free market it has tariffs.

Currently it stops us negotiating our own trade deals with say India and China. The UK for instance has massive advantages reg trade with India but while we stay inside the EU we can't make independent trade deals with one of our historical and natural trade partners with a common business language.

I live in Germany and the feeling here is that Germany will make special exceptions for the UK as it is their biggest export market - almost bigger than the whole EU combined.

The longer we stay in the more we will be strangled by Federal Europe (currently costing 50m a day) as it is the EU charter to harmonize across the whole EU and one day have full economic and monetary Union and also a European army. All this means less independence, more cost and ultimately less say on defence matters.

The trade barrier and tariff game.

http://madb.europa.eu/madb/euTariffs.htm

Whether it has or not,  you've responded to the minor point there. We would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs, perhaps millions.

[Parky]

Rubbish.

[Parky]

The role of surplus and why Germany is failing Europe by sending its profits to Wall street rather than re-investing it in Europe.

Historical context.

[Incognito]

Rubbish.

Well argued. We know that many multinational companies such as Nissan would be off with an Out vote. 4.2 million jobs in this country are linked to exporting to the EU. Now of course they won't all go but many will. It's a ridiculous argument to say otherwise.

[Parky]

Rubbish.

Well argued. We know that many multinational companies such as Nissan would be off with an Out vote. 4.2 million jobs in this country are linked to exporting to the EU. Now of course they won't all go but many will. It's a ridiculous argument to say otherwise.

There is no analysis anywhere that says we'd lose hundreds of thousands or millions of jobs.

Nissan would export to the EU just as Germany would continue to export millions of cars to the UK.

We run a trade deficit with the EU. It's not in their interest to freeze us out.

When you come out with claptrap please back it up.