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What would be the best option?

Theresa May's deal
Walk away with no deal
Forget it and stay in

Author Topic: why is it so hard to do a Brexit  (Read 750140 times)

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Offline neesy111

  • General Member
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24875 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 01:55:19 PM »
what would the benefit of going to a norway deal be bluf?  i mean you'd need to be doing it for a tangible reason surely

i guess we'd pay slightly less, is that about it?

Less EU rules to follow.

Online mrmojorisin75

  • General Member
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24876 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 01:56:47 PM »
what would the benefit of going to a norway deal be bluf?  i mean you'd need to be doing it for a tangible reason surely

i guess we'd pay slightly less, is that about it?

Less EU rules to follow.

such as?
So raise your fists and march around
Dont dare take what you need
I'll jail and bury those committed
And smother the rest in greed
Crawl with me into tomorrow
Or i'll drag you to your grave
I'm deep inside your children
They'll betray you in my name

Sleep now in the fire

Offline kingkerouac

  • General Member
  • London, UK
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24877 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 01:57:53 PM »
Government trying to say it'll take a year or more to implement a referendum. :lol:

Does May think it'll take that long for Murdoch to write the new 'rules'?

Offline Disco

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  • Newcastle
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24878 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 02:20:31 PM »

The good Doctor.

Offline loki679

  • General Member
  • 中国
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24879 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 02:24:51 PM »
In a people's vote it would have to be a preference based vote with a wide range of options: IE no-deal, remain, Canada++, Norway 2.0, May's deal.

You haven't actually negotiated a Super Canada double plus with fries or a Scando-lite so how would either of those options work?  The people vote for that pie in the sky and then the EU say it's not possible and then what?
Comfy chairs, beer, and doom. Humanity's future is an early 90s LAN party.

Offline BlufPurdi

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  • Speaking truth to stupid since 2005.
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24880 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 02:25:43 PM »
what would the benefit of going to a norway deal be bluf?  i mean you'd need to be doing it for a tangible reason surely

i guess we'd pay slightly less, is that about it?

Benefits?  Not really what I was dealing in.  I was meaning it up against May's deal, and no deal.  From a personal point of view, I still feel Brexit has to happen.  Of course, if we can get away with it not happening, I'd be happy with that, but the realist in me says it does have to happen, and I fear the second referendum would only confirm it anyway. 

So why not try and get ahead of all that s****, and actually pick the least worst option, before we gamble and bluff our way to a second referendum that there is simply f*** all guarantee we'd win.  Sames goes for an election.  Total gambles that could merely solidify a no deal scenario.  Does the polling in favour of no deal not terrify anyone else? 

Going beyond that, and speaking of the realities of the Norway model and if it were implemented (it'll not please anyone that is against FoM), I think it's a blessing in disguise we'd not have to send any MEPs anymore.  Would be a relief not to have UKIP as the nation's largest european party. 

Benefits?  It's essentially being in the EU, we're in the SM and a CU, we have the four freedoms, and we'd have to take on less EU laws and regs which would be an olive branch to the sovereignty absolutists. 
« Last Edit: Friday 18 January 2019, 02:40:01 PM by BlufPurdi »
Making mistakes is how you learn.
Every generation must fight the same battles again and again and again. There is no final victory, and there is no final defeat, and so a little bit of history may help.
“What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system.
That is why no one with power likes democracy and that is why every generation must struggle to win it and keep it – including you and me, here and now.

Offline BlufPurdi

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  • Speaking truth to stupid since 2005.
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24881 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 02:29:40 PM »
In a people's vote it would have to be a preference based vote with a wide range of options: IE no-deal, remain, Canada++, Norway 2.0, May's deal.

You haven't actually negotiated a Super Canada double plus with fries or a Scando-lite so how would either of those options work?  The people vote for that pie in the sky and then the EU say it's not possible and then what?

It's said they were on the table, but the redlines ruled them out.
Making mistakes is how you learn.
Every generation must fight the same battles again and again and again. There is no final victory, and there is no final defeat, and so a little bit of history may help.
“What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system.
That is why no one with power likes democracy and that is why every generation must struggle to win it and keep it – including you and me, here and now.

Offline Hughesy

  • General Member
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24882 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 02:46:37 PM »
what would the benefit of going to a norway deal be bluf?  i mean you'd need to be doing it for a tangible reason surely

i guess we'd pay slightly less, is that about it?

Benefits?  Not really what I was dealing in.  I was meaning it up against May's deal, and no deal.  From a personal point of view, I still feel Brexit has to happen.  Of course, if we can get away with it not happening, I'd be happy with that, but the realist in me says it does have to happen, and I fear the second referendum would only confirm it anyway. 

So why not try and get ahead of all that s****, and actually pick the least worst option, before we gamble and bluff our way to a second referendum that there is simply f*** all guarantee we'd win.  Sames goes for an election.  Total gambles that could merely solidify a no deal scenario.  Does the polling in favour of no deal not terrify anyone else? 

Going beyond that, and speaking of the realities of the Norway model and if it were implemented (it'll not please anyone that is against FoM), I think it's a blessing in disguise we'd not have to send any MEPs anymore.  Would be a relief not to have UKIP as the nation's largest european party. 

Benefits?  It's essentially being in the EU, we're in the SM and a CU, we have the four freedoms, and we'd have to take on less EU laws and regs which would be an olive branch to the sovereignty absolutists. 

Just out of interest - why do you think Brexit needs to happen?

Offline BlufPurdi

  • Administrator
  • Speaking truth to stupid since 2005.
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24883 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 02:54:55 PM »
They won the referendum.  I accept there was meddling and undue levels of funding, but I just don't believe it invalidates the result.  As much as anything, I don't think we can allow it to invalidate the result, because elections have been meddled in for decades by countries all over the globe.  As soon as we legitimately start to invalidate referendums and elections, we're going to slip very fast down the slope. 

The Tories overspent in 2015, where is the uproar from people about that?  Or is okay because Russia wasn't involved?  These are criminal matters and should be dealt with by the justice system, and at no point are they going to rule the election invalid because they know it's a dangerous precedent. 

Adding to that, I simply don't believe the meddling was the deciding factor.  We've had a hostile press to the EU for decades.  We've had a ruling party that has done its best to blame and scapegoat the EU for decades.  It's partly why a euphoric and dominant Labour party never dared bring the EU question to a referendum despite Blair's promises that he would.  Twice.  He knew of the UK's inherent euroscepticism (perpetuated by an unbalanced press, yes).  It's not something the Russian's magiced up in the last few years. 

But look, please.  These are my opinions, please don't batter me back with but this and that, whataboutery this and that.  This is simply what I believe.  As I've said, if anyone or any party is courageous enough to stop Brexit, they'll have my support, but I'm not going to act like I think it's the wisest move. 

One last bit, my fear is a second referendum, or even a GE, will solidify the worst option for us.  That's the deciding factor, for me.
Making mistakes is how you learn.
Every generation must fight the same battles again and again and again. There is no final victory, and there is no final defeat, and so a little bit of history may help.
“What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system.
That is why no one with power likes democracy and that is why every generation must struggle to win it and keep it – including you and me, here and now.

Offline Hughesy

  • General Member
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24884 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 03:01:19 PM »
Won't be battering you back!  I was just interested to know.  Personally, I would regard democracy as being fluid, so saying you absolutely must enforce the result of a vote 2.5 years ago seems a bit odd to me - particularly if you have reason to think that it doesn't even reflect the current voting intentions of the people (and I think there is certainly sufficient doubt to suspect that this might be the case). 

In any event, if you were to hold another referendum, Brexiteers still have the chance to vote for Leave - if people still want to leave, then the result would be exactly the same.  Seems like there's not a lot to be afraid of if they are so convinced that it's the will of the people...

Offline Gottlob

  • General Member
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24885 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 03:12:21 PM »
The big benefit of a Norway-style deal right now is that it's something known, a template. I think you could say to the EU, let's keep the basic withdrawal agreement and look towards a future relationship along the lines of Norway, and get the EU to agree to an Article 50 extension while knocking up fairly swiftly a new political declaration. And I think as something known and tangible, you could actually command a majority of MPs to back a Norway-style deal: it means leaving the EU, which upholds the result of the referendum and avoids the need for another vote, but it does so on the least economically damaging terms, keeping us within the single market and customs union.

No doubt some of the papers and some of the politicians would cry foul, but it seems like the clearest compromise - with such a short space of time left - that could unite the left, Tory rebels, remainers, even some Conservatives who simply want to avoid no deal, like I say with the added benefit that it upholds the pretence of the referendum.

Of course there's the argument that such a deal wouldn't leave us better off, but that's the implacable abstract argument in favour of a no-deal Brexit. Namely that if we're going to leave the EU, it makes no sense to follow any EU regulations and maintain any regulatory harmony because it would make us a rule taker and potentially limit our deal-making ability. Practically rather than abstractly, anybody with any sense knows that leaving with no deal would be disastrous. But I don't think there is any deal that maintains alignment with the EU which is better than continued membership, so instead it's about mitigating the impact.

Corbyn hasn't attempted to create a tangible alternative to the government's Brexit policy (a customs union but not the customs union or single market and no freedom of movement isn't a tangible alternative at this stage to the deal May has agreed), he uses some of the same talking points as the far-right no-dealers (shouting down the backstop for instance), and he's unwilling to compromise and forge consensuses. He also seems to have no path towards government beyond the hope that in the turmoil of no deal, the public finally decide that he might be a better option. But however much I actually support many of his policies, the country is not going to be better off outside of the EU with some programme of nationalisation.

I do worry that he's simply prevaricating and hoping the clock runs out, but whether that's true or not, there's no doubt that until now he's been content with biding his time and muddying the waters hoping that things blow up for the government. And I worry too that the failed confidence vote and his refusal to meet with May is actually making her rather than him appear stronger, especially to the traditional northern Labour voter who by now might as well be a mythical creature.

Offline AyeDubbleYoo

  • General Member
  • Ian W
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24886 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 03:22:53 PM »
Ouch.

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/01/18/week-in-review-a-circular-firing-squad-of-stupidity

Quote
They are the most inadequate, self-interested, unimaginative, unprincipled, irresponsible party leaders in living history. There is no thesaurus in the world which could contain all the descriptions of their failures. In a moment which requires towering political figures, we're lumped with them: a prime minister with the intellectual status of a pebble and an opposition leader with the cerebral qualities of crumbled paper.

Offline Varadi

  • General Member
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24887 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 03:37:53 PM »
Suspected this was where we were headed


Looking at the end of Feb apparently. Corbyn needs to think up a coherent policy on Brexit sharpish or he's f***ed.

Offline mozy

  • General Member
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24888 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 03:39:41 PM »
The only reason he doesn't want to meet with May is because he would have to come out of it either backing her deal (obviously not) or give reason as to why she is still being unreasonable (unwilling to negotiate on her redlines 1,2 and 3, which we as Labour don't agree with).

He has no alternative policy, so he has nothing to state publically that May is being unreasonable about. I don't really see what he' playing at to be honest.

Offline BlufPurdi

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  • Speaking truth to stupid since 2005.
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24889 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 04:09:15 PM »
He's trying to prove that he's giving Brexit its best shot before he as no choice but to back a referendum.  I can see why people might not agree with that tactic, but that's clearly what he's doing and its not hard to see why.  People like to point out that 60-odd% of Labour voters voted Remain, that's still a heavy whack to completely disregard.  People argue "but he's disregarding the 60%", well no, he's not, because they did officially lose the referendum so their desires do have to come second to an overall objective of achieving (a) Brexit. 
Making mistakes is how you learn.
Every generation must fight the same battles again and again and again. There is no final victory, and there is no final defeat, and so a little bit of history may help.
“What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system.
That is why no one with power likes democracy and that is why every generation must struggle to win it and keep it – including you and me, here and now.

Offline Hughesy

  • General Member
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24890 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 04:12:30 PM »
Ouch.

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/01/18/week-in-review-a-circular-firing-squad-of-stupidity

Quote
They are the most inadequate, self-interested, unimaginative, unprincipled, irresponsible party leaders in living history. There is no thesaurus in the world which could contain all the descriptions of their failures. In a moment which requires towering political figures, we're lumped with them: a prime minister with the intellectual status of a pebble and an opposition leader with the cerebral qualities of crumbled paper.

Can't really argue with much of that to be honest.

Offline BlufPurdi

  • Administrator
  • Speaking truth to stupid since 2005.
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24891 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 04:18:12 PM »
Ian Dunt's just another O'Brien.  Can tear a situation to shreds, can be very funny and spot on, but capable of hyperbolic statements such "but if Brexit happens, there will be no NHS, no welfare state" etc.  Which he said yesterday or the day before in an article posted here.  That's just categorically false.  Sure you can make argument that we'll have a reduced economy, so technically there's less money to go around, but the constant peddling of this sort of bullshit does my head in.  It's since fueled the FBPE brigade that basically peddle the same s*** and use it almost as a template in response to any Labour person that doesn't see Brexit as the end of the world.

Again, to these people, the suffering already wasn't worth moaning about, but they're now moaning to save our skin, believe it.  Aye right.
Making mistakes is how you learn.
Every generation must fight the same battles again and again and again. There is no final victory, and there is no final defeat, and so a little bit of history may help.
“What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system.
That is why no one with power likes democracy and that is why every generation must struggle to win it and keep it – including you and me, here and now.

Offline Matt

  • General Member
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24892 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 04:42:18 PM »
Dunt is peddling his book with his prophecies of doom and is overdoing it a bit but I think he does a good job of keeping the actions of the politicians under fire from a non-partisan perspective.

While I only got to hear of Dunt through the Remainiacs podcast so haven't heard much else from him, I know O'Brien has spoken out against austerity in the past.

Offline Hughesy

  • General Member
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24893 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 04:57:49 PM »
Yeah - O'Brien spoken about austerity quite a lot.

As for Dunt, pretty much every article that he writes seems to nail it from my perspective.  Likewise, I don't know what his view on austerity was prior to Brexit, but I don't see why that makes much difference to be honest.  If you want wide sweeping social reform, an economy that hasn't been trashed by Brexit would be pretty helpful.

Offline BlufPurdi

  • Administrator
  • Speaking truth to stupid since 2005.
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24894 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 04:59:22 PM »
Fair enough. :thup:

I don't hate them, despite my venom (:lol:), I just wish they would try and rise above the condescension that is prevalent in their reporting and live shows.  I don't think pretending the NHS, welfare state etc will cease to exist is helpful either.  We talk about lies and distortions from Leave, well that's one from our side.
Making mistakes is how you learn.
Every generation must fight the same battles again and again and again. There is no final victory, and there is no final defeat, and so a little bit of history may help.
“What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system.
That is why no one with power likes democracy and that is why every generation must struggle to win it and keep it – including you and me, here and now.

Offline Wullie

  • Administrator
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24895 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 05:08:29 PM »
Ian Dunt's just another O'Brien.  Can tear a situation to shreds, can be very funny and spot on, but capable of hyperbolic statements such "but if Brexit happens, there will be no NHS, no welfare state" etc.  Which he said yesterday or the day before in an article posted here.  That's just categorically false.  Sure you can make argument that we'll have a reduced economy, so technically there's less money to go around, but the constant peddling of this sort of bullshit does my head in.  It's since fueled the FBPE brigade that basically peddle the same s*** and use it almost as a template in response to any Labour person that doesn't see Brexit as the end of the world.

Again, to these people, the suffering already wasn't worth moaning about, but they're now moaning to save our skin, believe it.  Aye right.

I'd be very surprised if that's true.
Jeff's Garage - Cheaper than some other garages.

Offline Wullie

  • Administrator
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24896 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 05:11:33 PM »
The interesting thing about Dunt is that he was, until fairly recently, a solid Eurosceptic.


Writes about it here: https://iandunt.com/2017/08/08/my-role-in-the-great-brexit-conspiracy/

I think he's great and really knows his stuff, a travesty he's not made his way onto Question Time.
Jeff's Garage - Cheaper than some other garages.

Offline BlufPurdi

  • Administrator
  • Speaking truth to stupid since 2005.
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24897 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 05:22:22 PM »
Ian Dunt's just another O'Brien.  Can tear a situation to shreds, can be very funny and spot on, but capable of hyperbolic statements such "but if Brexit happens, there will be no NHS, no welfare state" etc.  Which he said yesterday or the day before in an article posted here.  That's just categorically false.  Sure you can make argument that we'll have a reduced economy, so technically there's less money to go around, but the constant peddling of this sort of bullshit does my head in.  It's since fueled the FBPE brigade that basically peddle the same s*** and use it almost as a template in response to any Labour person that doesn't see Brexit as the end of the world.

Again, to these people, the suffering already wasn't worth moaning about, but they're now moaning to save our skin, believe it.  Aye right.

I'd be very surprised if that's true.

Apologies, he said "there will be no money for the NHS, no money for housing", which is just as wrong. 

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/01/16/no-confidence-fails-now-corbyn-faces-his-brexit-judgement-da

Quote
But there's no point pretending you can just ignore Brexit. You can't treat it like any other political issue. It dominates everything. We're discussing the entire trading structure of the country. There's no money for the NHS if we get this wrong. There's no money for housing. And on a deeper social level, there is no chance for an open, compassionate, left-wing country when you hand the keys to a bunch of right-wing xenophobic fantasists.

Sorry like, but that's just not how it works, staggering that a bum from Glasgow knows this, but he's able to make a living saying this s***?  Even in the event of no deal, we're not going to suddenly run out of money.  Governments still have levers at their disposal, they can do much to mitigate any hardship.  Sure, that's why so many of us are terrified of the Tories taking us out on no deal, because they have no pretence in trying to alleviate hardship, but the principle is true.  Governments can protect us if they choose to, leaving, even in a no deal, does not render us a non-country with no revenue. 

It's the same sort of argument that the Tories used for austerity.  If we don't do this, there will be no money for, you wait for it, the NHS! 

EDIT: I accept his point about the right wing being in power for this, making it harder for the Left to prevail.
Making mistakes is how you learn.
Every generation must fight the same battles again and again and again. There is no final victory, and there is no final defeat, and so a little bit of history may help.
“What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system.
That is why no one with power likes democracy and that is why every generation must struggle to win it and keep it – including you and me, here and now.

Offline Wullie

  • Administrator
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24898 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 05:35:34 PM »
You're taking his words bizarrely literally there imo. I don't think he's implying we'll have to shut the NHS down. Slightly out of context as well as he'd mentioned the NHS and housing both being in crisis in the previous paragraph, they're not just randomly brought up.
Jeff's Garage - Cheaper than some other garages.

Offline BlufPurdi

  • Administrator
  • Speaking truth to stupid since 2005.
Re: why is it so hard to do a Brexit
« Reply #24899 on: Friday 18 January 2019, 05:37:58 PM »
Fair enough.  I perhaps have, but then people that laud him and his like also take these comments on literally and regurgitate them in their own localised debates on Twitter or in family arguments.  So it's not just me. :lol:

Making mistakes is how you learn.
Every generation must fight the same battles again and again and again. There is no final victory, and there is no final defeat, and so a little bit of history may help.
“What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?” If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system.
That is why no one with power likes democracy and that is why every generation must struggle to win it and keep it – including you and me, here and now.