Topic: The Battle for 7th

[ponsaelius]

FWIW I think Everton are a shoe-in for 7th and we will be a fair few points adrift somewhere between 10th and 12th.

[toontownman]

Our position depends entirely on how long it takes our side to gel, we are a long ways off right now and missing at least four key players, two of which haven't joined the club yet!

On paper I think we have improved over the summer but teams like everyone and even way big Bolton yesterday have got their consistent flow already.

Do we have the players and potential to finish 7th? With two or more decent signings I would say so. But I think we won't see the team coming into itself until nearer Christmas. I will stick with 9th if we click, think too many games and points will be dropped before we start working.

[timeEd32]

I see the 'rivals' like this:

Man U, Chelsea - Battle for the title
Man City, Arsenal - Battle for 2nd/3rd.
Liverpool, Spurs - Battle for 4th/more likely 5th
Everton, Fulham, Villa - Battle for 7th/8th
Newcastle, Sunderland, WBA, Stoke, Bolton - Battle for top ten/midtable
Blackburn, Wigan, Wolves, Swansea, Norwich, QPR - Battle to avoid relegation


Chopped and changed Villa - put them in the group above based purely on having a prolific goalscorer like Bent up top for them, but they could easily be in our group of rivals.

No reason why someone from the battle for top ten group couldn't push on for 7th or 8th. It's a good goal at least.

Also, if ManU/Chelsea are battling for the title, then wouldn't Man City/Arsenal be for 3rd/4th and Liverpool/Spurs be for 5th?

IMO, Man City belongs with Man United/Chelsea though I think it's really ManU then everyone else. Arsenal will be battling for 4th with Liverpool/Spurs.

[cr4igora]

No reason why someone from the battle for top ten group couldn't push on for 7th or 8th. It's a good goal at least.

Agreed 

[afar]

unless we sign twp fantastic players this week, we are not finishing in the top 10. Neil's right we are no rivals to Everton and the like right now.

Define 'two fantastic players'

For us right now, two fantastic signings would be akin to Tiote signing of last year at this time.

[Doctor Zaius]

Think people are being very optimistic given that, as it stands, if Demba Ba gets an injury or doesnt happen to hit the ground running, we're relying on Shola, Lovenkrands and Best to get our goals. 

If we dont get another striker in, i honestly fear for us like. Relegation battle is probably a little on the pessimistic side like but never the less, we will be struggling for goals without another forward.

[afar]

The other point I'll make here is that I din't think Spuds certain to be in the top 6, I think there are problems ahead for that team, I certainly wouldn't regard them as the media do as part of the big 6 now that can win the title.

[afar]

Think people are being very optimistic given that, as it stands, if Demba Ba gets an injury or doesnt happen to hit the ground running, we're relying on Shola, Lovenkrands and Best to get our goals. 

If we dont get another striker in, i honestly fear for us like. Relegation battle is probably a little on the pessimistic side like but never the less, we will be struggling for goals without another forward.

Very true, I do think this year there is going to be a lot of dross at the bottom, which should keep us safe from danger.

[The Prophet]

unless we sign twp fantastic players this week, we are not finishing in the top 10. Neil's right we are no rivals to Everton and the like right now.

Define 'two fantastic players'

For us right now, two fantastic signings would be akin to Tiote signing of last year at this time.

For me at least we need another forward and a left back, while I'd obviously like the forward to be 'fantastic' I don't think it will make or break our top ten chances. I think you over-estimate the strength of the league.

[Conjo]

Cool concept for a thread. Hope you keep it updated through the season in OP so we can follow. 

[TRon]

Depends very much on the calibre of the striker and left back we bring in.

[alexthegreat]

By just browsing the tables from the past 5 or 6 seasons, it seems that roughly 60 points is the target if you want to get 7th, which I think is a realistic, if slightly ambitious, target for us.

I think we'll be competing with teams like Everton, Sunderland and Villa, so I'll be tracking their results here as well.

Anyway, what I'm going to track is basically the actual points a team gets vs the expected points the team is supposed to get. I think the Premiership table at certain points of the season doesn't tell the full picture. Many times, teams that have good or bad starts only do so because the quality of the opposition, and it's not a true reflection of the quality of the team, so if you know how you're performing against how you're supposed to perform, then it can be comforting (or not). Chelsea, for example, started last season very well because they faced quite a lot of s*** teams.

Anyway, to get 58 points in a season - why 58? because the formula works better - you can lose all your matches against the top 6 away from home and draw against them at home. That gives you 6 expected points from 12 matches.

Then against everyone else, you're expected to win all your home games and draw all your away games, which is (13x3 + 13x1) = 52.

52 + 6 = 58. If any of Villa, Everton, Sunderland or us gets 58 points, I think that it'd be good enough for 7th place.

So, so far, we got one point against Arsenal, which was expected. Villa got a point away at Fulham, which was expected, Everton haven't played, while Sunderland actually got a point away at Liverpool, which is one more than was expected for them. Bolton won away from home, so they're at +2, Stoke got a point at home against a top 6 team so they're at 0.

Last update: Gameweek 1
Bolton (+2)
Sunderland (+1)
Newcastle, Villa, Everton, Stoke (0)
West Brom (-1)
Fulham (-2)

Anyway, next week, Sunderland are expected to beat us, while we're only expected to get a point against them. If Sunderland beat us, their 'points' tally will still be +1 because the victory was expected, while our points tally will be -1 with a defeat, 0 with a draw, and +2 with a win.

I'll update this once every few weeks to see how all the teams are doing.

60 points does seem a little bit ambitious to me. We've only cleared 58 points twice in the last 14 years. Really don't think this is going to be the year we do it

[Conjo]

Pip: If you want to spend even more time, make up a table where you can see what category of games the teams pick up most points.

[Stifleaay]

60 points is equal to 20 wins. No way are we going to get something like that.

[Andy]

FWIW I think Everton are a shoe-in for 7th and we will be a fair few points adrift somewhere between 10th and 12th.

Thought I'd put this in bold for Dave since he nearly always corrects this error.

[Segun Oluwaniyi]

60 points is equal to 20 wins. No way are we going to get something like that.

This is a very stupid post.

[Neil]

[Pip]

58 points is 13 wins, 19 draws and 6 defeats. Obviously teams will probably win a couple more and lose more than six games, but for all intents and purposes, what I've set out will do.

[n4e]

60 points is equal to 20 wins. No way are we going to get something like that.

[Elliottman]

60 points is equal to 20 wins. No way are we going to get something like that.

Fkn Hell.

[cp40]

17th?





tight arsed owner

[Northern Monkey]

7th place?? Not while we have Ashley and/or Pardew. Absolutely no chance.

We need to aim for 16th/17th.

Terrible owner (do NOT try the "he keeps us afloat crap", thats nowhere near true), poor manager, amnd a team that man-for-man is worse than the one that got relegated. So 7th?? muahahaha.

[Neil]

7th place?? Not while we have Ashley and/or Pardew. Absolutely no chance.

We need to aim for 16th/17th.

Terrible owner (do NOT try the "he keeps us afloat crap", thats nowhere near true), poor manager, amnd a team that man-for-man is worse than the one that got relegated. So 7th?? muahahaha.

How's about you don't use the "this team is worse than 08/09" crap?

[Stifleaay]

People laughing at my post. Have word with yourself man, the best possible way to get 60 points (in terms of games we are not going to get any points out of) is by winning 20 games. No way will we win 20 games, we will need to draw which then takes the amount of games we can afford to lose down again.

Any of you thinking we can achieve 60 points is f***ing deluded and retarded.

[BottledDog]

People laughing at my post. Have word with yourself man, the best possible way to get 60 points (in terms of games we are not going to get any points out of) is by winning 20 games. No way will we win 20 games, we will need to draw which then takes the amount of games we can afford to lose down again.

Any of you thinking we can achieve 60 pints is f***ing deluded and retarded.

Psssst... Phil Mitchell, he's just called you f***ing deluded and retarded.


Wait, what? 60 PINTS?