Author Topic: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.  (Read 64192 times)

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Offline Unbelievable!

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #100 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 08:10:36 PM »
In fairness, we were without Owen for even more of the campaign... and we had Glenn Roeder as the manager... not to mention suffering loads of other ball-aching injuries as well.

Not sure if using last-term as a measuring stick is entirely sensible when talking about next season, when you take into account how much has changed at both clubs since May.

I tend to agree that it's very optimistic thinking to say we'll finish above them next term (although Parky did only say "pretty good chance"), but saying we won't because they got 25 points more than us last season means absolutely nowt.

You honestly think the fact that Arsenal finished the season just ended 25 (!) points ahead of us is not a valid argument for saying we won't finish above Arsenal the season that hasn't even started..???!!! By that reasoning Wigan fans may think they have a pretty good chance of getting in the Champions League..

Offline Teasy

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #101 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 08:14:33 PM »
I don't know about finishing above Arsenal next season.  With a much better manager, new players (with at least a few more to come) and no major injury problems then yeah its possible.  But definitely not something I would call a good chance, not at the moment anyway.

What I will say though is that Arsenal's injuries last season weren't even worth mentioning in comparison to ours..
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Offline Unbelievable!

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #102 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 08:29:47 PM »
They´ve not had as many injuries as us, but they have been hit by injuries harder than their top 4 competitors, with Thierry Henry, Robin van Persie, William Gallas, Abou Diaby, Tomas Rosicky, Freddie Ljungberg and Theo Walcott all out for serious parts of the seasons. If they wouldn´t have, the gap might have been 35 points or more. There is no way our injuries have cost us that much, and even if you think they did, what makes you believe we won´t have any this coming season. I know Allardyce is renowned for keeping players fit, but he can´t make some of our very injury prone players less injury prone.. Would you be surprised if Owen, Dyer, Carr, Babayaro, Ameobi et al were out for serious amounts of time next season for example?

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #103 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 08:36:19 PM »
So, you're all thinking it's a long shot and that maybe in 2/3 seasons. But why is that?
Not so long ago we finished 7th under Roeder after flirting with relegation with half a squad and kids filling in week in week out.

Arsenal are in a much worse state than people realise. Henry their kingpin and mascot is gone and will soon be followed by Fabregas (Real).
Ljundberg is coming to the end of his usefullness and Reyes will not return. They have had defensive problems all last season...Others have already read
the writing on the wall (Gallas)...With comments about not winning owt with kids etc...Wenger is weakened without his general Dien.

We on the other hand have arguably one of the best strike forces in the PL and are slowly putting together a defence to match, the puzzle is coming together.
If we start factoring in the arrival of types such as Deco and maybe one or two other quality players we are in a position to compete for 4th.

The situation as I see is that Manu and Chelsea are miles ahead and Liverpool will  start to catch up this year, but currently Arsenal are vulernable. Spurs and us will give 4th a run for its money.

Why not?





No chance sorry but we wont have anything like a team untill at least 08/09
Dont foreget we have been in the dark ages with things like sports science training diet, etc
for years now sam is going to need time to drag us  kicking  and Screaming into the new era,
have patience there is a lot of work to do.

Offline Atticus

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #104 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 08:51:03 PM »
In fairness, we were without Owen for even more of the campaign... and we had Glenn Roeder as the manager... not to mention suffering loads of other ball-aching injuries as well.

Not sure if using last-term as a measuring stick is entirely sensible when talking about next season, when you take into account how much has changed at both clubs since May.

I tend to agree that it's very optimistic thinking to say we'll finish above them next term (although Parky did only say "pretty good chance"), but saying we won't because they got 25 points more than us last season means absolutely nowt.

You honestly think the fact that Arsenal finished the season just ended 25 (!) points ahead of us is not a valid argument for saying we won't finish above Arsenal the season that hasn't even started..???!!! By that reasoning Wigan fans may think they have a pretty good chance of getting in the Champions League..

Yes I honestly do. Otherwise I wouldn't have bothered to post it, would I? Dear me.

How can anyone say we categorically will not finish above Arsenal next season, though? Especially using last season as their main argument when the circumstances were completely different? Since last season we've seen arguably the biggest changes in this club's history while Arsenal have also had some major issues to contend with. Now not saying these changes are positive or negative either way - time will tell us that - but the playing field is completely different to what it was for the entirety of last season.

For example:

West Ham finished 4th bottom last season, does that mean that they'll finish there again with all the signings they've made?

Things change dramatically, even in a few months. I wonder how many people predicted us finishing 4th/flirting with the title after coming where we did the season prior (11th) and after only buying Bellamy and Robert in the Summer (Elliott came on a free as well, mind!)

There are still almost 4 weeks to go until a ball is kicked, by when we will have a better idea of what sort of chance there is of this actually happening, which refutes the other part of Macbeth's argument (about not replacing Bramble, Moore, Bernard and Onyewu yet.) I don't know how anybody could confidently predict this either way though, especially at this stage.

At this precise point in time it does seem for all intents and purposes that Parky and others are being optimistic, but a lot can change in a month - as we've already seen recently - but someone saying that there is a "pretty good chance" of us finishing above Arsenal next year isn't the craziest thing I've seen on here today. In fact, someone arguing that last season's final standings will have ultimate bearing on where teams finish next term is far more daft in my eyes when you look at the fluctuation of some teams' league placings over the Premiership years.

Offline tmonkey

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #105 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 08:56:00 PM »
We're still miles behind Arsenal.

Eboue > Geremi
Toure > Taylor
Gallas > Rozenhal
Cliche > Babayaro, Baines, Shorey, etc.
Hleb > Milner
Rosicky > Duff/Zog
Fabregas > Emre/Barton
Gilberto > Butt
Van Persie > Owen

In practically every single outfield position, they have a player who is significantly better than anything we have, bar maybe a second striker since Eduardo is unproven (Van Persie is easily better than Owen, Martins, Viduka).

The only hope of them finishing outside the top 4 is that they struggle up front, especially if Persie picks up more knocks.

Offline Unbelievable!

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #106 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 09:11:49 PM »
Bloody hell. So in your book it´s more daft to argue that the current strength of a team and the position in which they ended the league just two months ago is relevant to how that team will perform next season than it is to argue that we have a `pretty good chance´ of finishing above Arsenal.. Because statistically of course there are giant fluctuations between how teams do from one season to the next? And this is Arsenal we are talking about; they have had a bad season just like us by all accounts. It's not that long ago they completely dominated this league beating every record in the book and reached the Champions League final. Henry has left, but if people think they are now within our reach they need a reality check as far as I am concerned. We will do very well to finish above the likes of Everton next season. Getting up to the level to compete with the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool  for Champions League is a couple of years away at least, and only attainable if Ashley has big plans for us, which we don't even know as yet. Realistically, if we wanted to be at that level this season coming Ashley would be looking at an outlay of over 100 million, and I can't quite see that happen..

Not wanting to get into semantics here, but how would you define a ´pretty good chance´ by the way..? 20%? 25%? 30%? Maybe even more?

Offline Mick

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #107 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 09:22:28 PM »
Bloody hell. So in your book it´s more daft to argue that the current strength of a team and the position in which they ended the league just two months ago is relevant to how that team will perform next season than it is to argue that we have a `pretty good chance´ of finishing above Arsenal.. Because statistically of course there are giant fluctuations between how teams do from one season to the next? And this is Arsenal we are talking about; they have had a bad season just like us by all accounts. It's not that long ago they completely dominated this league beating every record in the book and reached the Champions League final. Henry has left, but if people think they are now within our reach they need a reality check as far as I am concerned. We will do very well to finish above the likes of Everton next season. Getting up to the level to compete with the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool  for Champions League is a couple of years away at least, and only attainable if Ashley has big plans for us, which we don't even know as yet. Realistically, if we wanted to be at that level this season coming Ashley would be looking at an outlay of over 100 million, and I can't quite see that happen..

Not wanting to get into semantics here, but how would you define a ´pretty good chance´ by the way..? 20%? 25%? 30%? Maybe even more?

Bobby spent £15.5 million to take us from 11th to 4th, he spent that money of 2 players who took us from strugglers to challengers.  Why would it now cost over £100 million to do a similar job to that one?
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"I'm Bryan," the skipper replied. "You're Bobby."

Offline Unbelievable!

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #108 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 09:29:24 PM »
Bloody hell. So in your book it´s more daft to argue that the current strength of a team and the position in which they ended the league just two months ago is relevant to how that team will perform next season than it is to argue that we have a `pretty good chance´ of finishing above Arsenal.. Because statistically of course there are giant fluctuations between how teams do from one season to the next? And this is Arsenal we are talking about; they have had a bad season just like us by all accounts. It's not that long ago they completely dominated this league beating every record in the book and reached the Champions League final. Henry has left, but if people think they are now within our reach they need a reality check as far as I am concerned. We will do very well to finish above the likes of Everton next season. Getting up to the level to compete with the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool  for Champions League is a couple of years away at least, and only attainable if Ashley has big plans for us, which we don't even know as yet. Realistically, if we wanted to be at that level this season coming Ashley would be looking at an outlay of over 100 million, and I can't quite see that happen..

Not wanting to get into semantics here, but how would you define a ´pretty good chance´ by the way..? 20%? 25%? 30%? Maybe even more?

Bobby spent £15.5 million to take us from 11th to 4th, he spent that money of 2 players who took us from strugglers to challengers.  Why would it now cost over £100 million to do a similar job to that one?

Well, it's not like the clubs in the top 4 have stopped spending have they? Man U and Liverpool have both added over 50M worth to their already way better squads than ours. Against your example I could also point out that Sounness spent 50 million to take us back from 4th to 11th.. The lesson is that money spent badly doesn't help, but that is not to say money isn't needed to bridge the gap. We are miles behind the clubs in the top 4, and we won't realistically catch up on freebies and spending less than they do..

Offline Mick

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #109 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 09:35:53 PM »

Well, it's not like the clubs in the top 4 have stopped spending have they? Man U and Liverpool have both added over 50M worth to their already way better squads than ours. Against your example I could also point out that Sounness spent 50 million to take us back from 4th to 11th.. The lesson is that money spent badly doesn't help, but that is not to say money isn't needed to bridge the gap. We are miles behind the clubs in the top 4, and we won't realistically catch up on freebies and spending less than they do..

I agree that money should be spent well, that's why I don't think we need to spend as much as £100 million if we spend it well.

Out of the top 4 I think Arsenal are the team that looks like being the weakest, I'm not saying we'll do better than them because the next 4 weeks or so will see a lot of players changing clubs, I think we will do well if we bring the right players in, I have no idea at this time if that will be the case.

I don't think we'd have any chance of catching them if the transfer window closed today, I'm not sure how the next 4 weeks will go but I hope that we get the players that we need.
"Hello, Bobby," he once greeted his England captain, Bryan Robson.

"I'm Bryan," the skipper replied. "You're Bobby."

Offline Unbelievable!

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #110 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 09:40:09 PM »
Fair enough, but people seem to easily interpret Arsenal's performance last season as the beginning of a downward slope, while it could just as easily be a glitch, like we´ve seen Arsenal have before and always recover from.. The season before it was Liverpool that finished behind Everton and that has apparently proved a glitch, as nobody now mentions them as being within striking distance..

Offline Mick

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #111 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 09:43:19 PM »
Fair enough, but people seem to easily interpret Arsenal's performance last season as the beginning of a downward slope, while it could just as easily be a glitch, like we´ve seen Arsenal have before and always recover from.. The season before it was Liverpool that finished behind Everton and that has apparently proved a glitch, as nobody now mentions them as being within striking distance..

It will be interesting to see how they get over Dein and Henry leaving, both played a major role in the success that they had.
"Hello, Bobby," he once greeted his England captain, Bryan Robson.

"I'm Bryan," the skipper replied. "You're Bobby."

Offline Martin Lol

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #112 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 09:48:46 PM »
A team is as good as its squad.  If there are 3 injured first team players, which 3 come in to replace them?

Arsenal are still a pretty safe bet for 4th imho.

And Spurs are a fairly safe bet for 5th.


Offline Atticus

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #113 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 10:47:37 PM »
Fair enough, but people seem to easily interpret Arsenal's performance last season as the beginning of a downward slope, while it could just as easily be a glitch, like we´ve seen Arsenal have before and always recover from.. The season before it was Liverpool that finished behind Everton and that has apparently proved a glitch, as nobody now mentions them as being within striking distance..

For the record, I never said anything about Arsenal being on a downward slope. My entire point from start to finish has been that Macbeth's argument was very, very flawed. A point you've practically just acknowledged to Mick - who basically said exactly the same as me in his posts. You seem to be on a mission to be contrary lately, mate. I'm amazed you've got anything left in your bladder with the amount of bonfires you've p*ssed on/attempted to p*ss on lately!

Feel free to argue any of the other points I made aside from the positional fluctuations, though, like the fact that we had our best/most important player (Michael Owen) missing for 35.5 league games last season (compared to Henry's 22), or that there are still 4 weeks left before the season starts and almost 7 weeks before the transfer window closes, or the jump we made from 11th to 4th with three new incomings (plus Distin later on that year). All I've argued the entire time is that people have every right to say we have a "pretty good chance" of finishing above Arsenal because while we seem to be on a major upswing, and the same cannot seemingly be said of them - I see where you're going with the percentage thing and I'd assume "pretty good" would be anywhere from 25%-50% on whatever scale you want to put it (not that predictions can really be measured in percentages, as you'll know.)

Like Mick said, if the season was starting tomorrow I'd be worried because of the massive holes in the defence (although we're really not that much worse off that last term when you consider how many games Moore missed last season, or that Onyewu was a very late arrival and that Bernard didn't play at all - Rozehnal has replaced Bramble and Geremi is here, as well.) But as previously mentioned, how can you predict what will happen between now and May? All that the original point said was we have a chance of finishing above Arsenal, based on the fortunes of the clubs since the end of last season and there are some on here who are saying there is no chance of that happening at all.

I know in your eyes Ashley could well be Satan and that Allardyce could be worse than Roeder and Souness, but all signs so far point to better things from us next season and over the coming years. How does last season's league table have any real effect on what we do from August 11th? If more players stay fit, if the new signings work, if the new manager is a massive improvement, if the crowd are constantly behind the team, if the city gets that "buzz" about it again and with no European football to exhaust the squad (something people haven't yet taken into account - Thursday/Sunday is pretty gruelling when you're having to use practically the same players for every match.) Even this brief list doesn't come close to accounting for everything that really matters when it comes to winning football matches.

I don't know if it's me seeing things the "wrong way", but last season's final standings are quite a way down in any list of variables you could create for what will happen by mid-May 2008 - although I can see what you/Macbeth are getting at with them. For me it's just far too simplistic and too much of an easy get-out clause to slap people down with. It's like posting statistics without explanations, which has always rankled me, it simply does not give you the whole picture.

Last season's league table does not tell the whole story of a Premiership season, although I do understand that they're all that matters in the end. If you were given a league table for every Premiership season to date, how much would you really learn about the teams involved or the matches that took place? All you're seeing is games played, wins, draws, losses, goals scored, goals conceded and points totalled. It doesn't tell you why the table ended up looking like that, all you know is who came where and the statistics about how they did so - it doesn't even scratch the surface. Personally I don't look at football as being so simplistic and you obviously don't either, from what I've read from you.

You must see what I'm getting at here?

Macbeth came in with an argument to back up his "mad optimism" opening which consisted of saying we won't finish above Arsenal because they got 25 points more than us last season with Henry missing 22 games, and not mentioning anything regarding Michael Owen missing 13.5 more games for us. Henry will miss 38 league games for Arsenal this season, as well, which might make some more difference than 22. That was it, that was his entire justification. No mention of Dein, Wenger's uncertainty, Henry being gone, Fabregas potentially unsettled, etc. etc. No mention of anything Roeder/Shepherd/Ashley/Allardyce-related from our side of things, either, etc. No squad comparisons. Nothing.

The following things about the defence and '88 were equally as useless when you take the time to read them/think about them properly (for example: why would he be so worried about replacing three "poor" defenders who only played 41 games between them? When Geremi/Rozehnal are already here and there are still 4 weeks before the season begins?) What has 1988 got to do with 2007, really?

Offline Dave

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #114 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 10:48:01 PM »
TL;DR. ;)

Offline Teasy

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #115 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 11:46:34 PM »
In practically every single outfield position, they have a player who is significantly better than anything we have, bar maybe a second striker since Eduardo is unproven (Van Persie is easily better than Owen, Martins, Viduka).

Jesus.. talk about hero worship :)  Of course Arsenal have a better side, but IMO you overate some of there players and don't even compare the weaker members of the team.

For instabce, Van Persie is a way better striker then Owen, Martins or Viduka based on what?  His goals to games ratio last season was basically the same as Martins but over a much lower number of games.  The season before it was much worse..  Viduka's record last season was better then Van Persie.  Don't get me wrong, Van Persie is a very good player, but to read your post you'd think he's world class or something, he isn't..
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Offline Unbelievable!

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #116 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 11:47:07 PM »
A few things...

For the record, I never said anything about Arsenal being on a downward slope. My entire point from start to finish has been that Macbeth's argument was very, very flawed. A point you've practically just acknowledged to Mick - who basically said exactly the same as me in his posts. You seem to be on a mission to be contrary lately, mate. I'm amazed you've got anything left in your bladder with the amount of bonfires you've p*ssed on/attempted to p*ss on lately!

If not going along with all the blind faith and unfounded optimism on here currently is contrary than so be it. It needs to be done. Objectively, people with an outsiders´ perspective will laugh at some of the unrealistic ambitions the fans have even before we know anything about the plans of our new owners.. Threads like this just illustrate that point. We alll like to mock Spurs when their supporters act like they´re a big club. Well, maybe some people on here need a mirror to look into, and I will happily provide it. The pissing on bonfires seems a bit bitter by the way.. I didn´t mean to offend anybody. Apologies if I did..

Feel free to argue any of the other points I made aside from the positional fluctuations, though, like the fact that we had our best/most important player (Michael Owen) missing for 35.5 league games last season (compared to Henry's 22)

OK, if you insist.. Arsenal missed Henry AND Van Persie for big and important parts of their season. We missed Ameobi, but he´s hardly on that level. Surely missing your two best strikers for a big part of a season is even more of an excuse for an overall under par performance than missing one?

, or that there are still 4 weeks left before the season starts and almost 7 weeks before the transfer window closes, or the jump we made from 11th to 4th with three new incomings (plus Distin later on that year). All I've argued the entire time is that people have every right to say we have a "pretty good chance" of finishing above Arsenal because while we seem to be on a major upswing, and the same cannot seemingly be said of them - I see where you're going with the percentage thing and I'd assume "pretty good" would be anywhere from 25%-50% on whatever scale you want to put it (not that predictions can really be measured in percentages, as you'll know.)

Like Mick said, if the season was starting tomorrow I'd be worried because of the massive holes in the defence (although we're really not that much worse off that last term when you consider how many games Moore missed last season, or that Onyewu was a very late arrival and that Bernard didn't play at all - Rozehnal has replaced Bramble and Geremi is here, as well.)

It could be argues that if it wasn´t for Obafemi Martins more or less hitting the ground running from a different league and culture we were in serious danger of getting dragged in a relegation fight. Much of that was due to our defense.. If we´re not, as you say, currently that much worse off we´re still nowhere where we need to be.

But as previously mentioned, how can you predict what will happen between now and May?

I can´t, but neither can any of the party brigade, and that I believe is the whole point of my `mission` these last couple of days..

All that the original point said was we have a chance of finishing above Arsenal, based on the fortunes of the clubs since the end of last season and there are some on here who are saying there is no chance of that happening at all.

I think you need to interpret `no chance` as a figure of speech here. Statistically there is always a chance, but Sunderland cannot be ruled out for winning the Premiership if that´s anything to go by..

I know in your eyes Ashley could well be Satan and that Allardyce could be worse than Roeder and Souness

No, I am very pleased with Allardyce. Have been from the start, and even went on record saying I wanted him here as he was the best we could get at the time before it happened. It´s Ashley whom I believe the jury is out on.. I don´t think he will be satan, but then again contrary to many people on here I didn´t think Shepherd was. All I´m saying is that I will believe it when I see it, not just assuming everything will turn out for the better without any objective foundation for that optimism..

, but all signs so far point to better things from us next season and over the coming years. How does last season's league table have any real effect on what we do from August 11th? If more players stay fit, if the new signings work, if the new manager is a massive improvement, if the crowd are constantly behind the team, if the city gets that "buzz" about it again and with no European football to exhaust the squad (something people haven't yet taken into account - Thursday/Sunday is pretty gruelling when you're having to use practically the same players for every match.) Even this brief list doesn't come close to accounting for everything that really matters when it comes to winning football matches.

That´s a lot of ifs..

I don't know if it's me seeing things the "wrong way", but last season's final standings are quite a way down in any list of variables you could create for what will happen by mid-May 2008 - although I can see what you/Macbeth are getting at with them. For me it's just far too simplistic and too much of an easy get-out clause to slap people down with. It's like posting statistics without explanations, which has always rankled me, it simply does not give you the whole picture.

Sorry, but when it comes to who qualifies for Champions League football statistics have proved to be fairly reliable the last couple of years. Hypothetically anything can happen, but we´re trying to be realistic, aren´t we.. Realistically there is a small chance (maybe 5/10%) of beating Arsenal to fourth, not a pretty good chance in my opinion. In effect, it is negligeable when you consider they have just had a bad year too.. It would require some disastor of a season for them to be overtaken by the likes of us next season. That´s just being realistic..

Last season's league table does not tell the whole story of a Premiership season, although I do understand that they're all that matters in the end. If you were given a league table for every Premiership season to date, how much would you really learn about the teams involved or the matches that took place? All you're seeing is games played, wins, draws, losses, goals scored, goals conceded and points totalled. It doesn't tell you why the table ended up looking like that, all you know is who came where and the statistics about how they did so - it doesn't even scratch the surface. Personally I don't look at football as being so simplistic and you obviously don't either, from what I've read from you.

You must see what I'm getting at here?

Macbeth came in with an argument to back up his "mad optimism" opening which consisted of saying we won't finish above Arsenal because they got 25 points more than us last season with Henry missing 22 games, and not mentioning anything regarding Michael Owen missing 13.5 more games for us. Henry will miss 38 league games for Arsenal this season, as well, which might make some more difference than 22. That was it, that was his entire justification. No mention of Dein, Wenger's uncertainty, Henry being gone, Fabregas potentially unsettled, etc. etc. No mention of anything Roeder/Shepherd/Ashley/Allardyce-related from our side of things, either, etc. No squad comparisons. Nothing.

They had a bad season and finished 4th. We had a horrendous season and finished 13th. We are working very hard to not repeat this, but so are they and so are in effect all the other teams. It´s not just about us making progress and Arsenal potentially (!) slipping a bit.

The following things about the defence and '88 were equally as useless when you take the time to read them/think about them properly (for example: why would he be so worried about replacing three "poor" defenders who only played 41 games between them? When Geremi/Rozehnal are already here and there are still 4 weeks before the season begins?) What has 1988 got to do with 2007, really?

I never mentioned 88. Must have been somebody else. I was a 12 year old boy back then who was over the moon with Holland winning the EC. I probably couldn´t have told you where Newcastle lies in England, so sorry, but don´t know what you´re on about..

Offline Dave

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #117 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 11:48:23 PM »
EL;DR. :tongue3:


Offline Unbelievable!

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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #119 on: Sunday 15 July 2007, 11:53:37 PM »
In practically every single outfield position, they have a player who is significantly better than anything we have, bar maybe a second striker since Eduardo is unproven (Van Persie is easily better than Owen, Martins, Viduka).

Jesus.. talk about hero worship :)  Of course Arsenal have a better side, but IMO you completely overate some of there players and don't even compare the weaker members of the team.

Van Persie is a way better striker then Owen, Martins or Viduka based on what?  His goals to games ratio last season was basically the same as Martins but over a much lower number of games.  The season before it was much worse..  Viduka's record last season was better then Van Persie.  Don't get me wrong, Van Persie is a very good player, but to read your post you'd think he's world class or something, he isn't..

Some stats for you (sorry Janitor)..

Henry played 16.5 games (1474mins) & scored 10goals
Van persie played 22 games (1456mins) & scored 11goals
Berbatov played 33 games (2715mins) & 12goals
Drogba played 33 games (2946mins) & 20goals

Not saying he´s better than Owen by the way, but that is a pretty good 2007 Premiership goals per minute played ratio..

Offline macbeth

  • General Member
Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #120 on: Monday 16 July 2007, 12:00:31 AM »
You must see what I'm getting at here?

Macbeth came in with an argument to back up his "mad optimism" opening which consisted of saying we won't finish above Arsenal because they got 25 points more than us last season with Henry missing 22 games, and not mentioning anything regarding Michael Owen missing 13.5 more games for us. Henry will miss 38 league games for Arsenal this season, as well, which might make some more difference than 22. That was it, that was his entire justification. No mention of Dein, Wenger's uncertainty, Henry being gone, Fabregas potentially unsettled, etc. etc. No mention of anything Roeder/Shepherd/Ashley/Allardyce-related from our side of things, either, etc. No squad comparisons. Nothing.

The following things about the defence and '88 were equally as useless when you take the time to read them/think about them properly (for example: why would he be so worried about replacing three "poor" defenders who only played 41 games between them? When Geremi/Rozehnal are already here and there are still 4 weeks before the season begins?) What has 1988 got to do with 2007, really?

Okay. Your positive outlook is essentially based on changes in Chairman and Manager, and the belief that Owen will play a lot closer to 38 games than to 10.

The owner has no track record in football, his credential is purely his cash. If it had been Lerner, or Gilete, or the Icelandic guy at West Ham, or the Portsmouth owner, or Steve Gibson then I think we'd have been equally as excited, just because of losing the predecessor.

The new players are fine, but unlikely to be team changing ones.
Geremi ? I'm happy he's better than Carr, can play in a couple of positions, sounds like we've signed Hughes back.
Rozenhal looks great on paper, should make one of the centre-half positions his own, but I'm saying this purely on the back of newspaper descriptions.
Barton, maybe, depends whether he's in prison or not.
Viduka, good addition, not convinced on attitude, also need to recognise that for whate ever reasons he has averaged less than 19 league starts per season for the last three years.

I'm not knocking the incomings, just trying to highlight there are some big concerns.

As for covering the 41 starts from missing crap defenders. We need 4 centre-halfs. As a wee question name the last two of our centre-halfs to have played in three-quarters of the league games in a season. Having Taylor and Rozenhal is great but the current first choice cover of Ramage and Huntington is less exciting, for us.

The Arsenal squad today, against the Newcastle squad today ? Well we get rid of 6 players who made 84 appearances, and 6 goals, we replace with 4 players so far. Arsenal lose 2 players who made 20 appearances and 10 goals, three in to replace them. Squads look to be fairly equally balanced in their trading to date. They are starting from a squad that gained 68 points, us from one that managed 43.

My comment about 88 came from the optimism for that year being even higher than for this. Finished 8th the previous year, strengthened well and were relegated by Xmas. Of course the opposte can happen, it fif with Sir Bobby. As great as Sam may be he doesn't quite have the experience/knowledge that Robson brought to the party. Again he may well prove to have it with time, but at the moment is hope, and guesswork.

And the last two centre-halfs to play 28 or more games in a season were Boumsong (2006) and Dabizas(2002).
Football Finances in plain English - http://www.football-finances.org.uk/

Offline ChezGiven

  • General Member
Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #121 on: Monday 16 July 2007, 12:10:45 AM »
Comparing Geremi to Hughes  :lol:

I think the premise of the thread is that the hoped for investments in all the right areas will be made. We have been told large amounts of money are available and we have a half-decent (at worst) manager who has so far made 4 very good signings.

Offline Coxaux

  • TAFKA Bellers
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Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #122 on: Monday 16 July 2007, 12:23:38 AM »
So, you're all thinking it's a long shot and that maybe in 2/3 seasons. But why is that?
Not so long ago we finished 7th under Roeder after flirting with relegation with half a squad and kids filling in week in week out.

Arsenal are in a much worse state than people realise. Henry their kingpin and mascot is gone and will soon be followed by Fabregas (Real).
Ljundberg is coming to the end of his usefullness and Reyes will not return. They have had defensive problems all last season...Others have already read
the writing on the wall (Gallas)...With comments about not winning owt with kids etc...Wenger is weakened without his general Dien.

We on the other hand have arguably one of the best strike forces in the PL and are slowly putting together a defence to match, the puzzle is coming together.
If we start factoring in the arrival of types such as Deco and maybe one or two other quality players we are in a position to compete for 4th.

The situation as I see is that Manu and Chelsea are miles ahead and Liverpool will  start to catch up this year, but currently Arsenal are vulernable. Spurs and us will give 4th a run for its money.

Why not?





For teams like ourselves and Spurs it will still be very, very difficult to dislodge Arsenal from that forth spot It's not impossible but we have to remember Arsenal have been in those European spots for years. Wenger has the experience and know how to guide his team into the champions league, he has done it year after year. Although the challenging pack are closing the gap I feel they are laking the experience and know how in closing out top four finish.

The loss of Henry will undoubtedly be huge, but how often has the loss of a "main man" in a team effected the team concerned in a positive way? One example that spring immediately to mind is the loss of Rooney to Everton. Although it isn't the best example Rooney was highly rated at a time when Everton were really struggling at the bottom of the league. Rooney was transfered to Man United and the transformation was nothing short of miraculous, a team ethic that was lacking became evident and they began to climb the league. Arsenal have also recently signed up Da Silva, a goal poacher they so desperately lacked. He is likely to provide a solution to the void that they have been looking to fill for some time. On top of this Van Persie will return from injury, a player who was bang in form before he was ruled out for the season with injury.

In Owen we also have a fine Goal poacher, unfortunately you've also got to a remember this a goal poacher who had never scored twenty goals a season before suffering a serious injury. On top of this the service to our strike force will never be as productive as it is at Arsenal. Their midfield play is far superior to ours, hence providing far more goal soring opportunities to their forwards. All this has to be considered before you mention the fact they have a settled to defense that is fairly proven and we our only just putting a newly assembled back line together.

Earlier I mentioned the know how of Arsenal. There is no doubt this is a brand new era at Newcastle, but this an era just beginning. The new owner has barely got his feet under the table and the manager is yet to imprint his mark and style on the team. You can't really use out previous standings in the league as an effective argument. However even though Wenger is building a whole new dynasty at Arsenal the experience is still there. The likes of Gilberto, Gallas and Toure have all one titles in the domestic campaign and have a vast European experience. Youngsters breaking into the team have been blooded in various cups and competitions and have been developed from day one to play the style that Arsenal want to play. This is a side that knows how to retain a top four side.

I've stated many times I believe Arsenal will finish in the top four next year, worst case scenario top five, with our current squad and ability can you see us overtaking the likes of Spurs as well as Arsenal in the coming season, it would require a minor miracle.

At the end of the day big things are expected of Big Sam but he needs time to deliver the goods. Ourselves and Arsenal are both in a transition phase yet Arsenal still have the know how, quality and far superior style of play no the field. In three or four years time we might be up their with the likes of Spurs and Arsenal but we have to be patient and maybe even suffer through another season of consolidation. Sam is no mug but he isn't a miracle worker, it would be highly unfair to expect him to ove take Arsenal  and essentially undue the damage of previous mangers in such a short space of time.

Offline Dave

  • Administrator
Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #123 on: Monday 16 July 2007, 12:27:22 AM »
I've stated many time...

Where? Welcome onboard btw.

Offline KaKa

  • Herping the Derp 24/7
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  • This is not a "dog chasing a balloon".
Re: Why we have a pretty good chance of finishing above Arsenal next season.
« Reply #124 on: Monday 16 July 2007, 12:31:44 AM »
Wenger goes for hot Rod
 
By MARK IRWIN
July 16, 2007
 

COMMENT ON THIS STORY
 
ARSENAL are poised to smash their transfer record with a £15million swoop for Argentinian striker Rodrigo Palacio.

Reports in Argentina claim Palacio, 25, will fly to London tomorrow for a medical after Boca Juniors accepted the Gunners offer.

He is destined to wear the No 14 shirt vacated by Thierry Henry’s recent £16m move to Barcelona.

Palacio wears No 14 for Boca and Argentina and is seen as a direct replacement for Henry.

Ironically, Barcelona had agreed a £14.9m deal for Palacio just days before learning long-term target Henry was available.

An earlier bid of £12.7m had been knocked back by Boca president Mauricio Macri, who said: “It would have to be a much bigger offer because, for me, he is the best striker in Argentina.”

The deal was further complicated by the fact former clubs Huracan and Banfield are both due a cut of the transfer fee.

But now it appears all obstacles have been removed after Arsenal came in with a record-breaking offer.

Palacio is currently in Venezuela as part of the Argentina squad which played Brazil in last night’s final of the Copa America.

He is eager to prove himself in Europe after going to the World Cup in Germany last year as back-up to Hernan Crespo and Carlos Tevez.

Palacio has scored 39 goals in 79 appearances for Boca and has won five Argentine caps.

He partnered Tevez in Argentina’s 1-0 win over Paraguay on July 5.

Gunners boss Arsene Wenger has already spent £16.5m this summer on striker Eduardo Da Silva and full-back Bacary Sagna.

Palacio’s arrival would smash the club-record £12.5m paid for Sylvain Wiltord in 2000.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2002390000-2007320774,00.html
I'll be watching the games, and I'll be talking about the teams. If it's a disaster it will be quite humorous and exactly what Mike Ashley deserves and to be honest I'll quite enjoy it. I am totally indifferent to results and the team success going forward.

Now, in certain games should the team do well, I will be happy more for the players, because I feel bad for them mostly, and I still want to see some of them do well. I will still feel comfortable giving the team credit when they do well. I just don't care about any outcome at this point and none of my money goes into anything to do with Mike Ashley's operations.