Cronky

With respect, that's false logic. The stat works because a shot on target is a statistical indication of a good scoring chance. A shot off target is an indication of a poorer chance. The whole picture is that it's not so much the number of chances as a whole that a team creates, but the number of good chances. You might get a naive manager who looks at the 'shot on target' stat and decides to instruct his players to hit the ball towards the opposition goal from all areas of the field. It wouldn't work because those situations do not represent 'good chances'. What makes football results hard to predict is that a team with a lot of possession who is trying to break down a packed defence might not get its due reward because of the value of a counter attack. A team is more likely to score when it's 2 on 2 rather than 9 on 9. There was a period - I think it was the 80s - when someone (Charles Hughes?) produced a stat that supposedly showed that the fewer the number of passes at team made in an attack, the more likely they were to score. This persuaded some teams to just hoof the ball forward rather aimlessly, no matter what the situation. I think the 'fewer passes' stat was just an indication of the relative potency of the counter-attack.

Lies, damned lies and statistics. More than anything, for me, this calls into question the value of this concept of 'expected goals', or how it's calculated. Man U on 44 points, us 8 points ahead of Spurs and 10 in front of Villa? The best stat that I've come across for predicting results is 'shots on target'.

Aw shucks..... (Or maybe he's just messing with my mind..... )

Greetings, my old nemesis. I could see him as a good addition to the squad, able to give Bruno a rest towards the end of games, or in European matches. I'd assume it's too late to restore him to his old state of fitness, but Eddie has a way of breathing new life into careers that have stalled. This would be a huge challenge, but with big potential rewards.

I've come across a rumour that we're interested in Ross Barkley. An extremely gifted player whose career went south for some reason. If Eddie can get to work on him, it might well be a great signing.

I don't think we can rely on Pope as our regular number one any more. He's injured the same shoulder twice. Besides, although he's a good shot-stopper, he doesn't command his area well and he's poor with the ball at his feet. I think Ramsdale is the better package, if he can get his confidence back - and Eddie is rather good at helping players in that area. We've also been linked with the Valencia keeper, but there may be something to be said for going British. We may be starting with a very new back four of Tino-Schar-Tosin-Hall and communication and the forging of trust may be at a premium.

£15m for Ramsdale just sounds like an opening bid. We're likely to have to pay nearly twice that. And I'm still conscious that the big six have yet to sell us a player (apart from that young lad from City, where I don't think they had much choice) We've made a success of picking up talented players whose careers have taken a dip. Ramsdale could be another one.

Even if we have better luck with injuries, I don't think our squad is strong enough to deal with that sort of workload successfully. Particularly when you consider how travel time in Europe eats into the availability for training and indeed appropriate rest. The example of Villa gets cited, but in terms of their individual players, I think both their first team and their squad is that bit better than ours. Eddie is continuing to get more from our players than we have a right to expect.

It looks like we may miss out altogether now. The team has a patched up look about it and I think we'll struggle at Brentford. The only thing that would bother me about missing out on the Europa League or Conference would be the possibility that it might deter some players from staying or coming. However, I do wonder how big a consideration these competitions are for most top players. The Champions League is a different matter of course. The toll that the extra fixtures and travelling take on players is there for all to see, and I'm not sure if, in their heart of hearts, managers and players are all that keen on participating in it, no matter what they might say for the cameras.

I was against VAR intervening in anything other than issues of fact ie offsides and goal-line issues. But now that it's here, I think scrapping it altogether is premature. I think Wolves have been amongst the Premiership's leading moaners, which may explain their motivation. It's a question of having realistic expectations. I suspect many of its critics were amongst its loudest advocates to start with, thinking that it would eliminate controversy. That was never going to happen. All that should have been asked of it was to eliminate blatant howlers. Too many pundits, players and managers don't seem to get the concept of the 'clear and obvious error'. VAR is not there to substitute one subjective opinion with another, even if a decision could be said to be 'probably' wrong. The processes were always going to experience teething troubles and it shouldn't be abandoned altogether on impulse.

I'm a bit jealous of Villa repeating our achievement of last year, but it's good that clubs from outside the big six are invading the Champions League places. Funny game, football, as they say. Despite City looking the more likely, if Son had buried that chance, Arsenal would probably now be the solid favourites. Those one-on-ones aren't quite as easy as they look. I'd say the success rate is about 50%? There's an element of luck, but if the attacker has the ability to chip the ball a bit while running at speed, that's usually a better bet than just blasting it.

Spurs have done okay in occasionally passing their way through the Premiership's fiercest press. But City looks the more likely to get the goal. I don't know why folk are complaining. I'm quite enjoying the game.

And good for young Hall too. It feels very old fashioned for midfield players to move backwards to receive the ball with a pass that doesn't eliminate any opposing players. Defenders now need to be good enough to thread the ball forward with accuracy.

If he can get his defensive play up to the same standard as his attacking skills, then he'd be the best in the league. Eddie has great faith in his and his staff's ability to improve players through coaching. He's prepared to hold them back from the first team for longer periods than you'd expect (eg Gordon). Hall had been held back for so long, that I'd started to think there was a deeper problem. Eddie was prepared to pick a very right-footed youngster in Tino rather than Hall. However, he seems to have a knack of keeping a player in that limbo position without damaging their morale. It looks like our guy has got it right yet again.

Hmmm...... There are rumours that Callum is looking to move on, for whatever reason.