Various: Mike Ashley in talks with Sheikh Khaled bin Zayed Al Nehayan

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2018/01/17/now-newcastle-amanda-staveleys-failed-attempt-hustle-mike-ashley/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

This made me laugh..

If there was a dummies' guide to selling a football club, Mike Ashley’s decision to publicly mock and deride Amanda Staveley’s bid to buy Newcastle would be somewhere near the back, in the chapter titled 'Extreme measures'

What is the point of Ashley backing us somewhat last summer to get back to the Premier League yet now, he's going to let us slide back to the Championship? Don't understand whatever logic he is using

What is the point of Ashley backing us somewhat last summer to get back to the Premier League yet now, he's going to let us slide back to the Championship? Don't understand whatever logic he is using

The logic is him taking a risk that Rafa can do it with minimum funding.  Can't say it's a very well calculated risk considering how much money the club would lose out on and how much unrest another relegation would cause among fans.

Wishful thinking  maybe  but I still think we'll be sold in the Summer should we avoid relegation. Trying to read between the lines ( and if the reprts of 300mill with clauses about relegation were accurate)it seems the sticking point was his valuation had no risk element for relegation. Should we stop up that element won't be there. Just hope he hasnt pissed them off to the extent theyd rather not have anything to do with him.

Not sure about that any more. I'm not convinced he wants to sell, or that they've agreed a price. By the time summer rolls round the price might have changed again, or PCP might just decide it's time to move on.

This attitude that because Ashley wants £300m then she’s stupid not to pay £300m is ridiculous.

So dd and our actual worth means nothing? Whatever he wants, you should pay or you’re a time waster? Sounds like that is from the Dummies guide to buying anything.

What is the point of Ashley backing us somewhat last summer to get back to the Premier League yet now, he's going to let us slide back to the Championship? Don't understand whatever logic he is using

He didn't back us, we used the proceeds of the sales of our biggest players to fund buying championship players to do the job.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2018/01/17/now-newcastle-amanda-staveleys-failed-attempt-hustle-mike-ashley/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Spot on that.

Nailed it. Won't go down well on here though.

Someone clarify or correct.

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2018/01/17/now-newcastle-amanda-staveleys-failed-attempt-hustle-mike-ashley/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Spot on that.

 

Nailed it. Won't go down well on here though.

Seems fair to me

If Staveley was/is serious about buying the club then this isn't over. Business negotiations of this size often go on for ages, with two skilled negotiators (backed by experienced teams of other skilled negotiators) using every trick in the book until they get what they want.

Staveley tried to get the club on the cheap and it didn't work. If she still wants it she'll have to come back to the negotiating table with a better offer. It's no different to you or I making an offer on a car and when it's turned down you walk away. Then when you get home you decide you really want it so you phone back and up your offer.  It doesn't make a jot of difference if the guy labelled your original offer 'insulting' and called you a 'joker'. He's never going to be your best friend, you just want his car for a good price.

The only different is the media don't give a shit about your car buying activity so they don't report every detail and make a load of shit up.

I've said for a couple of weeks now, it makes far more sense for Stavo to make an improved (or otherwise) offer at the end of the season or if/when we reach 40 points.

Gary Numan would love this thread.

Someone clarify or correct.

 

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

 

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

 

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

 

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

 

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

 

 

250m is low. That is what the club was worth a decade ago. With the new PL money top tier clubs can become decent investment vehicles if managed correctly. IMO Newcastle has other advantages over run of the mill PL clubs as well.

PL clubs will never be a "decent" investment vehicle man what are you on about

Someone clarify or correct.

 

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

 

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

 

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

 

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

 

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

 

 

 

250m is low. That is what the club was worth a decade ago. With the new PL money top tier clubs can become decent investment vehicles if managed correctly. IMO Newcastle has other advantages over run of the mill PL clubs as well.

You have to factor in the value of the playing squad though, and they're arguably worth less than every other team in the league. The stadium, training ground, commercial opportunities, general infrastructure etc. have a lot of value but ultimately any new owner will have to make up for Ashley's shortcomings in the transfer market and that needs to be taken into account. £250m isn't cheap when you need to invest £100m+ in the first team just to stabilise things.

If we had 2-3 world class players then £300-£350m is probably about right

PL clubs will never be a "decent" investment vehicle man what are you on about

 

I don't mean you can make money out of them, but as part of a portfolio they have tremendous marketing potential if it fits with other assets.

Someone clarify or correct.

 

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

 

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

 

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

 

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

 

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

 

 

 

250m is low. That is what the club was worth a decade ago. With the new PL money top tier clubs can become decent investment vehicles if managed correctly. IMO Newcastle has other advantages over run of the mill PL clubs as well.

 

You have to factor in the value of the playing squad though, and they're arguably worth less than every other team in the league. The stadium, training ground, commercial opportunities, general infrastructure etc. have a lot of value but ultimately any new owner will have to make up for Ashley's shortcomings in the transfer market and that needs to be taken into account. £250m isn't cheap when you need to invest £100m+ in the first team just to stabilise things.

If we had 2-3 world class players then £300-£350m is probably about right

I could make a couple of calls and raise 250. As you say the real nub is the other 200/300m odd to make the squad and everything competitive. It is a club that in a decade with the right investment and vision could be a permanent top 4/5 fixture.

Thought if the club sold for Ashley's valuation he would have made a decent profit despite 10 years of mismanagement? That's before you come onto the ancillary benefits. 

Someone clarify or correct.

 

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

 

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

 

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

 

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

 

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

The whole lack of due diligence thing didn't mean he didn't know about the loan, it was more that he didn't realise that it became immediately repayable following a change of control. He knew the loan was there, and the price of £135m reflected that loan. If the club didn't owe £100m to the banks, the club would have been worth a lot more.

Being very simplistic, you could say that a debt free NUFC in 2007 was worth £235m, but the fact that there was £100m owed to banks meant Ashley was only going to pay £135m.

Assuming NUFC in 2018 is being sold free of Ashley's debt, then it would appear that the £250m would be a tad on the low side if you look at it as how much 2007 NUFC should have increased in value to 2018 NUFC, given the huge increase in TV money. Even after the turmoil of the last 10 years, it isn't unreasonable to suggest that a £235m 2007 NUFC has increased to at least a £300m 2018 NUFC. Perhaps more, given that the international TV money isn't going to disappear any time soon.

If you look at the increase in value of other Premier League clubs, then that percentage increase isn't a bad example.

Jim White has apparently said nothing has changed in the eyes on PCP, and still want to buy the club.

Someone clarify or correct.

 

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

 

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

 

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

 

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

 

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

Seem to remember (and happy be corrected on the figures) that the club cost was £134m (ish), then about £70m of debt to be paid off in change of ownership and stuff. So that £204m (ish).

Then, I'm sure he had to put about £40m (as an 'interest free loan') in to help keep the club running after the first relegation.

Then another £30m was put in (as another 'interest free loan') to help keep the club running after the last relegation?

So thats £274m (ish) he's personally put into the club bu way of Purchase price, paying off debt, and then new loans.

However, he has also been taking some money out to pay himself back, but not sure on how much - but that could bring the outlay price closer to £250m, which would be him getting his outlay back with no profit.

As has been stated previously, the £250m was the price with possible relegation hanging over us.

They allegedly bid £300m, but with clauses in event we go down.

Basically, the offers and counter-offers are all guesswork, based upon 'sources'. Perhaps we'll never know.

Can only hope the deal isn't as dead as Ashley's 'source' initially made out, and that with a bit of compromise (on both sides), it can be done by the end of the season.

However, for Ashley to complain of the sale process with PCP being 'exhaustive' and accusing them of wasting his time, is just laughable. If anyone has 'previous' for messing people around, its Ashley!

Jim White has apparently said nothing has changed in the eyes on PCP, and still want to buy the club.

Well something's obviously fucking changed given that Ashley has rejected their offer.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2018/01/17/now-newcastle-amanda-staveleys-failed-attempt-hustle-mike-ashley/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Spot on that.

 

Nailed it. Won't go down well on here though.

It's a good read, but the bits about PCP and Staveley is all speculation without any proof. Not sure why it's written like fact.

Jim White has apparently said nothing has changed in the eyes on PCP, and still want to buy the club.

 

Well something's obviously f***ing changed given that Ashley has rejected their offer.

It's just part of the NUFC soap opera that gives them clicks and views. Ashley could shoot Rafa and Sky would still say he's in with a chance of being in the dugout for Saturday. 

 

The whole lack of due diligence thing didn't mean he didn't know about the loan, it was more that he didn't realise that it became immediately repayable following a change of control. He knew the loan was there, and the price of £135m reflected that loan. If the club didn't owe £100m to the banks, the club would have been worth a lot more.

 

Being very simplistic, you could say that a debt free NUFC in 2007 was worth £235m, but the fact that there was £100m owed to banks meant Ashley was only going to pay £135m.

 

Assuming NUFC in 2018 is being sold free of Ashley's debt, then it would appear that the £250m would be a tad on the low side if you look at it as how much 2007 NUFC should have increased in value to 2018 NUFC, given the huge increase in TV money. Even after the turmoil of the last 10 years, it isn't unreasonable to suggest that a £235m 2007 NUFC has increased to at least a £300m 2018 NUFC. Perhaps more, given that the international TV money isn't going to disappear any time soon.

 

If you look at the increase in value of other Premier League clubs, then that percentage increase isn't a bad example.

 

It wasn’t a £100m loan though when he purchased it though.

Off top of my head;

He paid £129m for the Club

The 15 year mortgage (secured each season until 2015 via 40K season ticket sales IIRC) on level 7 became immediately due on any sale so he had to pay that and he paid up all money owed on players we had purchased (I think) – I think in total it was about an extra £74m to his £129m purchase.

He then had to put loans in to cover relegation in 2009 and 2016 (both the fat w*****’s fault and which he should write-off if he had any decency about him – look at how much Ellis Short has written-off down the road) to the tune of about £65m.

Someone clarify or correct.

 

Ashley's initial loan was him paying off the club debt because he didn't do due dilligence?

 

So the club value was what he paid plus that loan to make the club debt-free.  What would that figure be, circa 250m?

 

Any other money spent in the interim since then was part and parcel of running a football club and in addition he's had free advertising and, to my knowledge, has had some of the debt serviced, yes?

 

The TV money dosn't come into the clubs value imo as all the clubs get TV money and it is therefore not a special consideration.

 

The reason I am asking these questions is to try and decide if £250m was ridiculously low, or £380m was ridiculously high.

 

Seem to remember (and happy be corrected on the figures) that the club cost was £134m (ish), then about £70m of debt to be paid off in change of ownership and stuff. So that £204m (ish).

 

Then, I'm sure he had to put about £40m (as an 'interest free loan') in to help keep the club running after the first relegation.

 

Then another £30m was put in (as another 'interest free loan') to help keep the club running after the last relegation?

 

So thats £274m (ish) he's personally put into the club bu way of Purchase price, paying off debt, and then new loans.

 

However, he has also been taking some money out to pay himself back, but not sure on how much - but that could bring the outlay price closer to £250m, which would be him getting his outlay back with no profit.

 

As has been stated previously, the £250m was the price with possible relegation hanging over us.

 

They allegedly bid £300m, but with clauses in event we go down.

 

Basically, the offers and counter-offers are all guesswork, based upon 'sources'. Perhaps we'll never know.

 

Can only hope the deal isn't as dead as Ashley's 'source' initially made out, and that with a bit of compromise (on both sides), it can be done by the end of the season.

 

However, for Ashley to complain of the sale process with PCP being 'exhaustive' and accusing them of wasting his time, is just laughable. If anyone has 'previous' for messing people around, its Ashley!

If that's right, that's £274m for a club that were a consistent PL fixture, with a squad that in today's market would probably be worth £200m+ on their own.

We're now a club that's been relegated twice in what, 8 years? and battled relegation in 2-3 of the seasons inbetween.  Our current squad is probably worth £100m absolute tops and our academy is a joke.

Ashley has reduced the value and standing of NUFC significantly. If it wasn't for the new TV deal he would have absolutely no right to demand even what he paid for the club, let alone a profit on top.