Jagten

"Free" is never free. Usually, it just means taking <50% of the transfer value and giving it as an addition to the agent and the player.

For a lot of the game this was true but this interpretation is not correct. The accumulative xG doesn’t tell you about the variance or the game state, so you can’t derive an implied scoreline. You are, for example, much more likely to score 0 goals from 468 shots of 0.01 xG vs 5 of .936 xG (close to 10000x more likely). The accumulation was also conditional on PSG failing to score. Should they have scored, their number doesn’t end up so high.

Atletico Madrid was only a loan offer, if it is to be believed. Otherwise, he's a 32 y/o with two previous ACLs, who's missed 65 games over the last three seasons, with one year left on his deal. I don't think it's worth selling him for whatever nominal amount we might get.

Isak hit .6 p/ 90 at 20 over 30 starts, which is higher than David has at any point in his career. Isak’s general game is of a higher technical standard, and they are not comparable here. Isak always had superstar potential, which he is now realizing. 30m + considerable agent fees and sign-on, salary is a lot of money. In our position, it’s do-not-miss money. I think the chance of that is too high.

I’m not saying he’s bad, but I think it’s pretty unlikely he reliably gets >10 non-penalty Premier league goals starting in most sides. Even with a year left he won’t be cheap, and I don’t think he’s astonishing value given there’s still a perspective he might have elite upside. It’s also somewhat concerning that despite lack of good candidates for a 9, nobody legit has gone for him.

Idk bro. You haven’t said anything. I’ll have to tap out.

Do you have some methodological concerns, or does modelling latent quantities just make you nervous?

Nah, it's pretty good.

Circa 50 non-penalty expected goals for Jonathon David from 140 Ligue 1 appearances for one of their better, more attacking teams btw. Not a fantastic return. I wouldn't touch him.

It's going to become increasingly difficult to sell high value within the Premier League, given PSR is nuking the demand. Can Everton buy anyone? The margin for error on transfers is contracting, and it's making clubs more careful.

I kinda like him and he's highly likely to improve but for 30m, given our obvious other needs, this in retrospect seems ... not good

Obviously defensive structure and xG performance is related? I think finding that level of defensive dysfunction is rare. You’re attributing views to me that are not mine. I like Howe and I am mostly neutral on Burn. Do I think Nick Pope and Joelinton should be / are the difference between a great defense and what we have witnessed now? No. Do I think they matter? Yes.

Definitely mattered, but it can be both the system and the missing players, which is my point. We shouldn’t be Nick Pope away from conceding chances like Burnley

What Man City getting ran through last season (?) looks like Us getting ran through

I’m not sure you did but thanks for playing!