Author Topic: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread: Lillestromatics  (Read 148255 times)

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Stu

  • People don't like it when you're in love with Dave
The 2011-2012 Betting Thread: Lillestromatics
« on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 10:01:24 AM »
Does what is says on the tin. People starting to look at season-long bets, stick your selections in here:


Crawley are favourites at 9/2 to win League 2 next year. Pitiful.

I think the best value in such markets is Birmingham to win the Championship at 8/1.

7/2 on b365.  Agree about Birmingham.

I've £2 on

Premier League: Man Utd
Championship: Birmingham
League 1: Huddersfield
League 2: Bristol Rovers
Champions League: Barcelona

Returns about 13k.

Who are people looking at as league winners for next season?

Thinking of a tenner on Barca, Crawley, Bayern, AC Milan, Celtic and PSG.

Trying to decide what to do for some season long bets meself, actually.

Been throwing around a few combinations today, there's some good value to be had. Decided I'm having £20 a week on Barca to win La Liga and £5 a week on them to win the Champions League until the odds become a fair bit worse than they are now.
« Last Edit: Monday 28 May 2012, 02:33:29 PM by Neil »
They keep saying their strategy will take several years to implement, I accept this and realise that in the future we may be able to hold onto players much easier if we manage to achieve success without burning cash to get there. There's next to no point in overspending until you're in the s*** to get to Europe, only to fall out of it for several years and potentially enter relegation battles. Be frugal, spend the money wisely but at all times keep a core of good players in the side and try the utmost to create a core which is reasonably stable for three-four years.

I fully expect to get slayed and slated here for being a w***** apologist and maybe I'm wrong, maybe all they care about is lining their pockets and f***ing us over but you can argue it both ways. The haters have a more aggressive way of talking about it but we'll not know who's right until MA's ownership comes to an end.

Otter

  • Formerly BooBoo
Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #1 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 10:02:25 AM »
Waaaaaay too soon for this thread.
You were supposed to be the chosen one!

JH

  • Administrator
Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #2 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 10:04:18 AM »
Waaaaaay too soon for this thread.

Not really. The last one was started last May :laugh:

Otter

  • Formerly BooBoo
Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #3 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 10:07:03 AM »
Waaaaaay too soon for this thread.

Not really. The last one was started last May :laugh:

Waaaaaaaay too early for that thread.
You were supposed to be the chosen one!

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #4 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 10:35:38 AM »
Waaaaaay too soon for this thread.

Not really. The last one was started last May :laugh:

Because last year there was something during these betting free, boring times... The World Cup?  :snod:

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #5 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 10:36:52 AM »
Come back in August then :razz:

I'll join in though:

Prem Man Utd
Championship West Ham
Conference Luton
CL Barca

Done this a few days ago so can't remember the odds.

AlanSkärare

  • #11 - Never forgotten
Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #6 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 10:43:59 AM »
Considering Chile for Copa America, 3rd favourites at 11.00x. Don't know how to translate that into your system.

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #7 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 10:45:57 AM »
Someone else that uses decimal. :D That'd just be 10/1, would it not?

JH

  • Administrator
Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #8 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 10:47:19 AM »
12/1 on bet365.

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #9 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 12:07:39 PM »
I've already done some long term bets, with low money:

3 € on us to finish Top 4.

2 € on
Champions League: Real Madrid
Bundesliga: Wolfsburg
Premier League: Man Utd
Championship: Birmingham

10€ on
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich
Premier League: Man Utd
Promotion: West Ham


And some bets, that aren't long term:

150 € on Germany (women) to win their World Cup.

6.25€ on Andreas Klöden to win the Tour de France (without Contador)
2 € on Tom Boonen to win the green jersey at Tour de France.

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #10 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 01:11:08 PM »

2 € on Tom Boonen to win the green jersey at Tour de France.

I love this bet, I'm going to be all over the tour next week but with the new system for sprints and the few uphill finishes, 66-1 with the each way for top 3 is such a sweet price. I've got a covering bet on Denis Galimzyanov too, I think he's almost as fast as Cavendish in a flat finish.   

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #11 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 03:31:26 PM »
Ranheim
Asker
Bodø/Glimt - Mjøndalen X
Sandes Ulf
Ham-Kam - Hødd X
--------------------------------
Strømsgodset - FKH X
Tromsø
Molde
Rosenborg
Bryne
Hønefoss
Asker


il Bambino

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #12 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 03:32:30 PM »
i had ranheim, laid to my stake at half time.

gone for stromsogodset aswell.
Bullshitters misrepresent themselves to their audience not as liars do, that is, by deliberately making false claims about what is true. In fact, bullshit need not be untrue at all.

Rather, bullshitters seek to convey a certain impression of themselves without being concerned about whether anything at all is true. They quietly change the rules governing their end of the conversation so that claims about truth and falsity are irrelevant.

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #13 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 03:34:16 PM »
Anything can happen in these leagues, a joke really..


il Bambino

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #14 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 04:04:10 PM »
You reckon. The Norwegian league has been a canny little earner for me in the past.
Bullshitters misrepresent themselves to their audience not as liars do, that is, by deliberately making false claims about what is true. In fact, bullshit need not be untrue at all.

Rather, bullshitters seek to convey a certain impression of themselves without being concerned about whether anything at all is true. They quietly change the rules governing their end of the conversation so that claims about truth and falsity are irrelevant.

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #15 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 04:10:06 PM »
In the past, yes. But the premier division is just sad nowadays. The funny thing is, even with Rosenborgs awful start, they could easily go on and win the league. By the way Ranheim 2-0, cracking goal..


il Bambino

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #16 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 04:18:41 PM »
Hah, 2-1, another Youtube-strike. FT.


il Bambino

Kaizero

  • By Public Demand
Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #17 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 04:33:46 PM »
First someone nicks the NBA threa from Mike, and now they nick the betting thread from me. No respect for annual thread starters these days. :huff:

;)

Put on my usual Rosenborg bet along with a Godset/Tromsø/Bodø treble.

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #18 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 05:22:38 PM »
Well, the 14th round is off in a pure lottery as usual.  :facepalm:


il Bambino

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #19 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 05:45:41 PM »
Had 17€ on Germany to lead by 10 minutes. Hope it'll count.  :undecided:

Kaizero

  • By Public Demand
Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #20 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 07:05:31 PM »
In the past, yes. But the premier division is just sad nowadays. The funny thing is, even with Rosenborgs awful start, they could easily go on and win the league. By the way Ranheim 2-0, cracking goal..

It's not a funny thing, it's media hype. They've only ever been nine points down with like... 57 points left to play for. Never a crisis, just a bad start.

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #21 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 08:58:36 PM »
In the past, yes. But the premier division is just sad nowadays. The funny thing is, even with Rosenborgs awful start, they could easily go on and win the league. By the way Ranheim 2-0, cracking goal..

It's not a funny thing, it's media hype. They've only ever been nine points down with like... 57 points left to play for. Never a crisis, just a bad start.

Of course, but this season it's not given that Rosenborg will win it. The loss of Annan has been devastating. 0-0 today, not very impressive. Then again, I don't see who else is gonna win. The results are so random, man..


il Bambino

Kaizero

  • By Public Demand
Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #22 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 09:07:40 PM »
In the past, yes. But the premier division is just sad nowadays. The funny thing is, even with Rosenborgs awful start, they could easily go on and win the league. By the way Ranheim 2-0, cracking goal..

It's not a funny thing, it's media hype. They've only ever been nine points down with like... 57 points left to play for. Never a crisis, just a bad start.

Of course, but this season it's not given that Rosenborg will win it. The loss of Annan has been devastating. 0-0 today, not very impressive. Then again, I don't see who else is gonna win. The results are so random, man..

It's still only media hype, the only "unnatural" occurances have been Rosenborg and Vålerenga's bad start. Strømsgodset, Tromsø and Molde have great teams and are where they're meant to be. Been a few freak results here and there, but that's the same in basically every league. Looking at the table, it doesn't look unnatural whatsoever bar Rosenborg and Vålerenga and a somewhat tighter than usual mid-table. That should clear itself up by the 20th round or so, though, as it always does.

The standard just isn't great in the Norwegian league, and the teams that do well one season tend to sell the players that made them do well and thus fall down the table in the next season. Only teams that should do well from year to year are Rosenborg, Vålerenga and Molde as they're the only team with a reasonable amount of money on their bank account. The rest will randomly fill the table from year to year depending on which teams have not sold the players making them decent yet. Look at Tromsø now, they'll sell themselves out of the title race again as they always do when they have a golden generation. It's about sustainability economically for most clubs, not silverware. Whcih is why the standard of the league is as low as it is.

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #23 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 09:35:23 PM »
and also to back up kai here a bit, i withdrew most of my monies from betfair and bet365 just before christmas as there were that many bizzarre results going on all round europe that i was just going to lose it all. been doing okay with what i left in since about april.
Bullshitters misrepresent themselves to their audience not as liars do, that is, by deliberately making false claims about what is true. In fact, bullshit need not be untrue at all.

Rather, bullshitters seek to convey a certain impression of themselves without being concerned about whether anything at all is true. They quietly change the rules governing their end of the conversation so that claims about truth and falsity are irrelevant.

Re: The 2011-2012 Betting Thread
« Reply #24 on: Sunday 26 June 2011, 09:52:46 PM »
In the past, yes. But the premier division is just sad nowadays. The funny thing is, even with Rosenborgs awful start, they could easily go on and win the league. By the way Ranheim 2-0, cracking goal..

It's not a funny thing, it's media hype. They've only ever been nine points down with like... 57 points left to play for. Never a crisis, just a bad start.

Of course, but this season it's not given that Rosenborg will win it. The loss of Annan has been devastating. 0-0 today, not very impressive. Then again, I don't see who else is gonna win. The results are so random, man..

It's still only media hype, the only "unnatural" occurances have been Rosenborg and Vålerenga's bad start. Strømsgodset, Tromsø and Molde have great teams and are where they're meant to be. Been a few freak results here and there, but that's the same in basically every league. Looking at the table, it doesn't look unnatural whatsoever bar Rosenborg and Vålerenga and a somewhat tighter than usual mid-table. That should clear itself up by the 20th round or so, though, as it always does.

The standard just isn't great in the Norwegian league, and the teams that do well one season tend to sell the players that made them do well and thus fall down the table in the next season. Only teams that should do well from year to year are Rosenborg, Vålerenga and Molde as they're the only team with a reasonable amount of money on their bank account. The rest will randomly fill the table from year to year depending on which teams have not sold the players making them decent yet. Look at Tromsø now, they'll sell themselves out of the title race again as they always do when they have a golden generation. It's about sustainability economically for most clubs, not silverware. Whcih is why the standard of the league is as low as it is.

You're right, but the freak results are too frequent. Also the consistency is absent in more or less every team in the league. Look at Molde, they're at 2nd place with 4 losses, one of them a 5-0 trashing by FKH. You don't see a second placed team in any other league with 4 losses after 13 matches. I'm not disagreeing with you, just stating that the general level in the league is quite visible through these freak results, and that everyone beats everyone every weak. It's no pattern. Also, the footballing system in Norway is on a whole other level than great football nations. Player developments are so slow, and competing doesn't get serious until you're like 12 years old. Therefore, there is obviously a massive lack of individualists in Norway, and the need of foreign players able to do something creative with the ball is huge.


il Bambino